Mon, Apr 6, 2026·Canada Life Centre, Winnipeg
Seattle Kraken 2, Winnipeg Jets 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | 113 | 04 | 17 | 224 |
| WPG | 17 | 213 | 311 | 631 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:17SEAJordan EberleAssists: Matty Beniers · Backhand, 0.10 xG1–0
- P1 12:39WPGJonathan ToewsPPAssists: Gabriel Vilardi, Josh Morrissey · Wrist, 0.23 xG1–1
- P2 9:55WPGGabriel VilardiPPAssists: Jonathan Toews, Mark Scheifele · Snap, 0.22 xG1–2
- P2 12:09WPGKyle ConnorPPGWGAssists: Mark Scheifele, Josh Morrissey · Slap, 0.07 xG1–3
- P3 2:28SEAJared McCannAssists: Kaapo Kakko · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–3
- P3 5:59WPGBrad LambertAssists: Adam Lowry, Neal Pionk · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–4
- P3 15:19WPGKyle ConnorAssists: Mark Scheifele, Alex Iafallo · Snap, 0.11 xG2–5
- P3 17:56WPGVladislav NamestnikovENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.46 xG2–6
Penalties (3)
- P1 11:52SEABerkly Catton: Holding the stick2 min · PPG
- P2 9:17SEAAdam Larsson: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 11:12SEACale Fleury: Roughing2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Scheifele won the faceoff against Beniers
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Seattle Kraken
Forward lines
- bestGaudreau – Winterton – Fisker Molgaard9:11
xG 0.46–0.07 (87%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Winterton – Fisker Molgaard – Catton2:14
xG 0.15–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Gaudreau – McCann – Kakko2:45
xG 0.00–0.07 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
- McCann – Kakko – Catton8:15
xG 0.17–0.34 (34%)attempts 7–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestDunn – Fleury15:10
xG 0.98–0.27 (79%)attempts 19–12goals 1–1
- Larsson – Evans15:35
xG 0.85–0.74 (53%)attempts 18–16goals 0–0
- Montour – Lindgren14:07
xG 0.56–0.55 (51%)attempts 10–15goals 0–0
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestScheifele – Connor – Iafallo15:51
xG 1.38–0.55 (72%)attempts 20–9goals 1–0
- Toews – Koepke – Rosen8:35
xG 0.28–0.15 (66%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Lowry – Iafallo – Perfetti2:41
xG 0.06–0.06 (49%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Niederreiter – Namestnikov – Lambert8:19
xG 0.11–0.28 (28%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSamberg – Pionk21:17
xG 1.51–1.21 (56%)attempts 26–19goals 2–0
- Fleury – Bryson14:27
xG 0.62–0.48 (56%)attempts 14–16goals 0–0
- DeMelo – Morrissey18:23
xG 0.44–1.06 (29%)attempts 12–20goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it SEA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − SEA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).