Thu, Apr 9, 2026·Centre Bell, Montreal
Tampa Bay Lightning 1, Montréal Canadiens 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 87% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 03 | 07 | 18 | 118 |
| MTL | 08 | 18 | 15 | 221 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 6:30MTLCole CaufieldAssists: Nick Suzuki, Juraj Slafkovský · Snap, 0.07 xG0–1
- P3 18:09TBLDarren RaddyshAssists: Nikita Kucherov, Gage Goncalves · Snap, 0.06 xG1–1
- P3 18:56MTLJuraj SlafkovskýGWGAssists: Nick Suzuki · Snap, 0.27 xG1–2
Penalties (31)
- P1 3:48TBLYanni Gourde: High sticking double minor4 min
- P1 13:11MTLArber Xhekaj: Roughing2 min
- P1 16:03MTLIvan Demidov: High sticking2 min
- P1 17:40MTLJosh Anderson: Roughing2 min
- P1 17:40TBLNikita Kucherov: Slashing2 min
- P2 3:33MTLJoseph Veleno: Roughing2 min
- P2 3:33MTLJayden Struble: Roughing2 min
- P2 3:33TBLCharle-Edouard D'Astous: Roughing2 min
- P2 3:33TBLNick Paul: Roughing2 min
- P2 3:33TBLCorey Perry: Roughing2 min
- P2 3:33MTLJosh Anderson: Roughing2 min
- P2 3:33MTLJosh Anderson: Cross checking2 min
- P2 7:04TBLAnthony Cirelli: Roughing2 min
- P2 12:20TBLOliver Bjorkstrand: Slashing2 min
- P2 12:20MTLJayden Struble: Misconduct10 min
- P2 12:20TBLNick Paul: Misconduct10 min
- P2 15:00TBLDeclan Carlile: Instigator2 min
- P2 15:00MTLJosh Anderson: Fighting5 min
- P2 15:00TBLDeclan Carlile: Fighting5 min
- P2 15:00TBLDeclan Carlile: Instigator misconduct10 min
- P2 17:34TBLBrayden Point: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 17:34TBLDarren Raddysh: Roughing2 min
- P2 17:34MTLAlexandre Texier: Roughing2 min
- P2 17:34TBLDarren Raddysh: Roughing2 min
- P2 17:34MTLJake Evans: Roughing2 min
- P2 17:34MTLJake Evans: Misconduct10 min
- P2 17:34TBLDarren Raddysh: Misconduct10 min
- P2 17:34MTLAlexandre Texier: Misconduct10 min
- P2 17:34TBLCharle-Edouard D'Astous: Misconduct10 min
- P3 11:02TBLJ.J. Moser: Roughing2 min
- P3 14:22MTLIvan Demidov: Kneeing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Cirelli won the faceoff against Suzuki
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestKucherov – Guentzel – Cirelli4:46
xG 0.26–0.09 (73%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Kucherov – Point – Goncalves3:31
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Perry – Paul – Pelletier2:13
xG 0.00–0.08 (0%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Gourde – Girgensons – Bjorkstrand4:52
xG 0.03–0.33 (8%)attempts 3–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMoser – Lilleberg5:24
xG 0.24–0.02 (94%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Raddysh – Moser2:10
xG 0.00–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- D'Astous – Lilleberg5:24
xG 0.00–0.15 (0%)attempts 2–4goals 0–1
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestSuzuki – Caufield – Slafkovský8:38
xG 0.95–0.16 (86%)attempts 17–6goals 2–0
- Anderson – Kapanen – Demidov2:10
xG 0.30–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Anderson – Evans – Veleno4:31
xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Danault – Dach – Newhook6:43
xG 0.00–0.08 (4%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMatheson – Hutson4:42
xG 0.56–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–1goals 1–0
- Struble – Hutson9:58
xG 0.59–0.05 (92%)attempts 15–6goals 1–0
- Xhekaj – Engstrom6:14
xG 0.30–0.11 (74%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 87% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).