Thu, Apr 9, 2026·Ball Arena, Denver
Calgary Flames 1, Colorado Avalanche 3
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 91% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 08 | 09 | 112 | 129 |
| COL | 112 | 120 | 19 | 341 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 18:44COLGabriel LandeskogPPAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Martin Necas · Snap, 0.27 xG0–1
- P2 15:01COLMartin NecasGWGAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Brent Burns · Wrist, 0.13 xG0–2
- P3 17:08CGYTyson GrossAssists: Matvei Gridin, Matt Coronato · Backhand, 0.13 xG1–2
- P3 19:05COLNathan MacKinnonENAssists: Martin Necas · Backhand, 0.82 xG1–3
Penalties (5)
- P1 18:37CGYJohn Beecher: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 4:33COLNathan MacKinnon: Slashing2 min
- P2 4:47CGYMatt Coronato: Slashing2 min
- P3 5:56CGYMatt Coronato: Hooking2 min
- P3 14:13COLJoel Kiviranta: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00MacKinnon won the faceoff against Frost
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestBeecher – Zary – Suniev9:30
xG 0.52–0.37 (58%)attempts 15–8goals 0–0
- Olofsson – Klapka – Gross7:12
xG 0.18–0.52 (26%)attempts 5–10goals 0–1
- Frost – Farabee – Gridin11:15
xG 0.21–0.59 (26%)attempts 8–16goals 0–0
- Backlund – Sharangovich – Coronato10:24
xG 0.64–1.17 (35%)attempts 17–16goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Maatta – Parekh2:25
xG 0.10–0.08 (57%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Pachal – Parekh9:07
xG 0.33–0.49 (40%)attempts 10–12goals 0–1
- Maatta – Brzustewicz15:27
xG 0.13–0.53 (20%)attempts 8–16goals 0–0
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestLandeskog – Lehkonen – MacKinnon3:08
xG 0.51–0.03 (95%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Nelson – Landeskog – Nichushkin6:14
xG 0.44–0.13 (78%)attempts 13–7goals 0–0
- Roy – Colton – Kiviranta7:57
xG 0.47–0.23 (67%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Lehkonen – MacKinnon – Necas10:07
xG 0.69–0.49 (59%)attempts 10–10goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestToews – Malinski15:34
xG 1.17–0.42 (74%)attempts 23–14goals 0–0
- Manson – Kulak14:00
xG 1.10–0.40 (73%)attempts 22–14goals 0–0
- Kulak – Blankenburg2:39
xG 0.27–0.07 (79%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 91% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).