Thu, Apr 9, 2026·Honda Center, Anaheim
San Jose Sharks 1, Anaheim Ducks 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 05 | 04 | 110 | 119 |
| ANA | 210 | 19 | 311 | 630 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:59ANALeo CarlssonAssists: Chris Kreider, Pavel Mintyukov · Wrist, 0.18 xG0–1
- P1 6:20ANAJohn CarlsonGWGAssists: Mikael Granlund, Pavel Mintyukov · Slap, 0.03 xG0–2
- P2 5:15ANAAlex KillornAssists: Beckett Sennecke · Wrist, 0.18 xG0–3
- P3 10:31ANAJohn CarlsonPPAssists: Troy Terry, Beckett Sennecke · Slap, 0.12 xG0–4
- P3 12:40SJSShakir MukhamadullinAssists: Tyler Toffoli · Snap, 0.08 xG1–4
- P3 14:03ANAJohn CarlsonPPAssists: Troy Terry, Mikael Granlund · Slap, 0.10 xG1–5
- P3 17:32ANAFrank VatranoAssists: Mason McTavish · Backhand, 0.11 xG1–6
Penalties (5)
- P3 9:40SJSCollin Graf: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 13:42SJSSam Dickinson: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 13:48SJSVincent Desharnais: High sticking2 min
- P3 14:59SJSKiefer Sherwood: Roughing2 min
- P3 14:59ANABeckett Sennecke: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Carlsson won the faceoff against Celebrini
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestWennberg – Sherwood – Celebrini2:24
xG 0.24–0.00 (100%)attempts 8–0goals 0–0
- Goodrow – Ostapchuk – Regenda2:43
xG 0.16–0.14 (54%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Toffoli – Dellandrea – Misa2:22
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Smith – Celebrini – Graf13:39
xG 0.25–0.27 (48%)attempts 12–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestOrlov – Desharnais16:29
xG 0.57–0.44 (57%)attempts 19–14goals 0–0
- Orlov – Mukhamadullin2:34
xG 0.14–0.05 (75%)attempts 4–1goals 1–0
- Desharnais – Dickinson2:39
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestKreider – Terry – Carlsson10:43
xG 1.03–0.45 (70%)attempts 17–9goals 1–1
- Killorn – Granlund – Sennecke10:15
xG 0.55–0.14 (79%)attempts 9–7goals 2–0
- Vatrano – Viel – McTavish8:52
xG 0.23–0.26 (47%)attempts 8–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCarlson – Mintyukov13:03
xG 1.11–0.28 (80%)attempts 23–10goals 2–0
- Helleson – Hinds14:15
xG 0.50–0.24 (68%)attempts 5–11goals 1–1
- Trouba – LaCombe10:53
xG 0.36–0.30 (55%)attempts 9–12goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).