Sat, Apr 11, 2026·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh
Washington Capitals 6, Pittsburgh Penguins 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 83% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 011 | 414 | 27 | 632 |
| PIT | 01 | 36 | 04 | 311 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 1:39WSHAliaksei ProtasAssists: Ilya Protas · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–0
- P2 2:05PITAnthony ManthaAssists: Ryan Shea, Tommy Novak · Wrist, 0.35 xG1–1
- P2 6:02WSHRyan LeonardAssists: Pierre-Luc Dubois, Connor McMichael · Tip-in, 0.78 xG2–1
- P2 8:08WSHTom WilsonAssists: Ilya Protas, Aliaksei Protas · Wrist, 0.24 xG3–1
- P2 11:47PITNoel AcciariAssists: Elmer Soderblom, Samuel Girard · Wrist, 0.24 xG3–2
- P2 11:58WSHRyan LeonardGWGAssists: Cole Hutson, Justin Sourdif · Wrist, 0.17 xG4–2
- P2 16:50PITKevin HayesAssists: Ryan Shea · Wrist, 0.04 xG4–3
- P3 5:56WSHIlya ProtasPPAssists: Cole Hutson, Dylan Strome · Wrist, 0.11 xG5–3
- P3 16:22WSHAlex OvechkinENAssists: Tom Wilson · Wrist, 0.64 xG6–3
Penalties (3)
- P2 14:43PITKevin Hayes: Holding2 min
- P3 5:16PITJustin Brazeau: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 8:10WSHDylan Strome: Penalty shot hooking on breakaway0 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Strome won the faceoff against Rakell
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestDubois – McMichael – Leonard6:19
xG 0.90–0.36 (72%)attempts 6–6goals 1–1
- Wilson – Protas – Protas10:25
xG 0.87–0.43 (67%)attempts 13–7goals 2–1
- Duhaime – Sourdif – Miroshnichenko7:30
xG 0.24–0.05 (81%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Ovechkin – Strome – Beauvillier10:14
xG 0.40–0.23 (63%)attempts 19–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestvan Riemsdyk – Chychrun15:38
xG 1.70–0.65 (72%)attempts 16–12goals 3–1
- Fehérváry – Sandin13:19
xG 0.49–0.05 (90%)attempts 18–3goals 0–0
- Roy – Hutson13:25
xG 0.51–0.47 (52%)attempts 13–12goals 1–1
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- Rakell – Chinakhov – Koivunen12:42
xG 0.25–0.44 (36%)attempts 10–15goals 0–1
- Hayes – Hayes – McGroarty12:15
xG 0.33–0.56 (37%)attempts 8–12goals 0–1
- Acciari – Koppanen – Soderblom8:10
xG 0.42–0.77 (35%)attempts 6–15goals 1–1
- Mantha – Novak – Brazeau9:59
xG 0.52–1.03 (33%)attempts 7–11goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- Girard – St. Ivany16:00
xG 0.53–0.85 (38%)attempts 14–18goals 0–2
- Clifton – Shea19:25
xG 0.42–0.96 (31%)attempts 7–28goals 1–0
- Graves – Solovyov14:35
xG 0.06–1.21 (5%)attempts 8–13goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 83% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).