Sat, Apr 11, 2026·Little Caesars Arena, Detroit
New Jersey Devils 5, Detroit Red Wings 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 18 | 113 | 312 | 533 |
| DET | 113 | 18 | 17 | 328 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:41DETJustin FaulkAssists: Dylan Larkin, Emmitt Finnie · Snap, 0.11 xG0–1
- P1 10:40NJDJack HughesAssists: Jesper Bratt, Dougie Hamilton · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–1
- P2 11:59DETDavid PerronAssists: J.T. Compher · Snap, 0.10 xG1–2
- P2 15:16NJDJesper BrattAssists: Johnathan Kovacevic, Dennis Cholowski · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–2
- P3 7:00DETEmmitt FinnieAssists: Lucas Raymond, Dylan Larkin · Backhand, 0.14 xG2–3
- P3 11:18NJDCody GlassAssists: Timo Meier, Jonas Siegenthaler · Snap, 0.25 xG3–3
- P3 16:26NJDJesper BrattGWGAssists: Jack Hughes, Connor Brown · Wrist, 0.13 xG4–3
- P3 19:00NJDDawson MercerENAssists: Nico Hischier, Dougie Hamilton · Wrist, 0.72 xG5–3
Penalties (1)
- P1 3:09NJDDougie Hamilton: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Copp won the faceoff against Hughes
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestMeier – Hischier – Mercer16:33
xG 1.23–0.55 (69%)attempts 19–14goals 0–1
- Brown – Bratt – Hughes15:00
xG 0.87–0.42 (68%)attempts 19–10goals 2–1
- Bjugstad – Glass – Hameenaho9:21
xG 0.31–0.50 (38%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
- Cotter – McLaughlin – Halonen6:49
xG 0.13–0.42 (23%)attempts 4–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestDillon – Nemec17:43
xG 1.66–0.95 (64%)attempts 26–23goals 0–2
- Hamilton – Siegenthaler20:08
xG 1.10–0.62 (64%)attempts 22–15goals 2–0
- Cholowski – Kovacevic13:46
xG 0.40–0.36 (53%)attempts 10–7goals 2–1
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- van Riemsdyk – Shine – Kasper4:53
xG 0.12–0.13 (48%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Perron – Compher – Mazur10:34
xG 0.62–0.77 (45%)attempts 12–15goals 1–3
- Larkin – Raymond – Finnie14:28
xG 0.36–0.95 (27%)attempts 9–18goals 1–1
- Kane – Copp – DeBrincat15:25
xG 0.13–0.74 (15%)attempts 11–16goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Bernard-Docker – Johansson8:44
xG 0.14–0.47 (23%)attempts 8–7goals 0–1
- Seider – Edvinsson20:25
xG 0.69–1.11 (38%)attempts 17–22goals 2–2
- Chiarot – Faulk20:29
xG 0.93–1.38 (40%)attempts 19–26goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).