Sat, Apr 11, 2026·Delta Center, Salt Lake City
Carolina Hurricanes 4, Utah Mammoth 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 212 | 05 | 212 | 429 |
| UTA | 08 | 07 | 112 | 127 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:25CARAndrei SvechnikovPPAssists: Nikolaj Ehlers, Shayne Gostisbehere · Backhand, 0.12 xG1–0
- P1 13:23CARJordan StaalGWGAssists: Nikolaj Ehlers, Jordan Martinook · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–0
- P3 2:42UTADylan GuentherPPAssists: Clayton Keller, Mikhail Sergachev · Slap, 0.07 xG2–1
- P3 15:31CARSebastian AhoAssists: Shayne Gostisbehere, Jaccob Slavin · Tip-in, 0.13 xG3–1
- P3 19:37CARSean WalkerENAssists: Jordan Martinook, Jordan Staal · Wrist, 0.80 xG4–1
Penalties (10)
- P1 3:27UTAMikhail Sergachev: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 16:34CARSebastian Aho: Hooking2 min
- P1 18:41CARSkyler Brind'Amour: High sticking2 min
- P2 5:32CARShayne Gostisbehere: Slashing2 min
- P2 13:41UTANick Schmaltz: Roughing2 min
- P3 2:01CARSebastian Aho: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 3:41CARAndrei Svechnikov: High sticking2 min
- P3 5:47UTAMacKenzie Weegar: Hooking2 min
- P3 14:48UTADmitri Simashev: Fighting5 min
- P3 14:48CARCharles Alexis Legault: Fighting5 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Cooley
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestStaal – Martinook – Ehlers8:22
xG 0.83–0.20 (80%)attempts 12–12goals 1–0
- Brind'Amour – Slavin – Nadeau7:28
xG 0.17–0.03 (83%)attempts 9–2goals 0–0
- Deslauriers – Robinson – Kotkaniemi4:57
xG 0.04–0.12 (23%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Brind'Amour – Robinson – Slavin2:46
xG 0.00–0.15 (3%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWalker – Nikishin13:47
xG 0.81–0.58 (58%)attempts 15–13goals 1–0
- Gostisbehere – Slavin13:48
xG 0.38–0.63 (37%)attempts 14–16goals 1–0
- Reilly – Legault7:10
xG 0.14–0.50 (22%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
Utah Mammoth
Forward lines
- bestO'Brien – Stenlund – Tanev6:03
xG 0.19–0.09 (69%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Schmaltz – Crouse – Keller9:11
xG 0.25–0.19 (57%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Kerfoot – Carcone – Peterka7:53
xG 0.18–0.31 (37%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Yamamoto – Guenther – Cooley10:14
xG 0.49–0.63 (44%)attempts 12–15goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSchmidt – Simashev9:05
xG 0.59–0.33 (64%)attempts 12–7goals 0–1
- Cole – Durzi11:35
xG 0.76–0.61 (56%)attempts 13–13goals 0–0
- Weegar – Sergachev11:33
xG 0.24–0.20 (54%)attempts 13–10goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
UTA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line UTA is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (UTA − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).