Sat, Apr 11, 2026·Canada Life Centre, Winnipeg
Philadelphia Flyers 7, Winnipeg Jets 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 313 | 27 | 23 | 723 |
| WPG | 110 | 010 | 08 | 128 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:17PHIPorter MartoneAssists: Travis Konecny · Snap, 0.14 xG1–0
- P1 6:57WPGHaydn FleuryAssists: Cole Koepke, Jonathan Toews · Snap, 0.08 xG1–1
- P1 8:24PHIMatvei MichkovGWGAssists: Noah Cates, Denver Barkey · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–1
- P1 8:49PHISean CouturierUnassisted · Snap, 0.11 xG3–1
- P2 11:41PHITravis SanheimAssists: Rasmus Ristolainen, Sean Couturier · Slap, 0.04 xG4–1
- P2 19:28PHINoah CatesSHAssists: Christian Dvorak, Rasmus Ristolainen · Snap, 0.16 xG5–1
- P3 6:23PHISean CouturierUnassisted · Backhand, 0.16 xG6–1
- P3 13:32PHINick SeelerAssists: Noah Cates, Matvei Michkov · Snap, 0.05 xG7–1
Penalties (5)
- P1 14:08PHITrevor Zegras: Cross checking2 min
- P1 16:56WPGMark Scheifele: Holding2 min
- P2 18:16PHINick Seeler: Tripping2 min
- P3 2:45PHITrevor Zegras: Hooking2 min
- P3 15:22WPGBrad Lambert: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Couturier won the faceoff against Toews
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestCates – Barkey – Michkov7:14
xG 0.29–0.05 (85%)attempts 9–3goals 2–0
- Couturier – Glendening – Hathaway8:23
xG 0.37–0.31 (55%)attempts 6–11goals 2–0
- Dvorak – Konecny – Martone9:43
xG 0.23–0.41 (36%)attempts 6–11goals 1–0
- Tippett – Zegras – Foerster11:21
xG 0.48–0.67 (42%)attempts 9–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSeeler – Andrae11:54
xG 0.55–0.31 (64%)attempts 15–11goals 1–0
- Ristolainen – Sanheim16:04
xG 0.62–0.55 (53%)attempts 10–11goals 2–1
- Sanheim – York2:01
xG 0.00–0.17 (0%)attempts 0–6goals 0–0
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestToews – Koepke – Rosen9:26
xG 0.36–0.17 (68%)attempts 12–6goals 1–0
- Scheifele – Connor – Iafallo11:58
xG 0.43–0.32 (57%)attempts 8–13goals 0–1
- Lowry – Vilardi – Perfetti9:55
xG 0.16–0.40 (28%)attempts 10–8goals 0–3
- Niederreiter – Namestnikov – Lambert7:27
xG 0.08–0.55 (13%)attempts 7–6goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestDeMelo – Bryson2:16
xG 0.35–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- DeMelo – Morrissey11:43
xG 0.60–0.35 (63%)attempts 15–7goals 0–0
- Morrissey – Pionk3:24
xG 0.22–0.04 (86%)attempts 7–1goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).