Sun, Apr 12, 2026·UBS Arena, Elmont
Montréal Canadiens 4, New York Islanders 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 010 | 39 | 13 | 422 |
| NYI | 09 | 06 | 118 | 133 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 15:56MTLNick SuzukiAssists: Juraj Slafkovský, Lane Hutson · Snap, 0.23 xG1–0
- P2 16:24MTLIvan DemidovPPGWGAssists: Nick Suzuki, Lane Hutson · Snap, 0.19 xG2–0
- P2 16:51MTLAlex NewhookAssists: Zachary Bolduc, David Reinbacher · Snap, 0.08 xG3–0
- P3 8:45NYICasey CizikasAssists: Scott Mayfield, Ryan Pulock · Wrist, 0.11 xG3–1
- P3 19:45MTLZachary BolducAssists: Alex Newhook, Kirby Dach · Snap, 0.24 xG4–1
Penalties (6)
- P1 4:07MTLJosh Anderson: High sticking2 min
- P1 13:01NYIEmil Heineman: Tripping2 min
- P2 3:10MTLArber Xhekaj: Roughing2 min
- P2 3:10NYIBrayden Schenn: Roughing2 min
- P2 15:56NYIMatthew Schaefer: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 18:44MTLArber Xhekaj: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Horvat won the faceoff against Suzuki
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestTexier – Newhook – Demidov6:53
xG 0.35–0.27 (57%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Danault – Anderson – Evans10:05
xG 0.38–0.35 (52%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Suzuki – Caufield – Slafkovský12:24
xG 0.51–0.59 (47%)attempts 12–13goals 1–0
- Dach – Bolduc – Kapanen7:46
xG 0.11–0.71 (13%)attempts 4–15goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestXhekaj – Reinbacher8:11
xG 0.16–0.00 (97%)attempts 8–3goals 1–0
- Struble – Hutson13:53
xG 0.64–0.75 (46%)attempts 11–16goals 1–0
- Matheson – Guhle18:03
xG 0.45–1.25 (26%)attempts 10–19goals 0–0
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestSchenn – Barzal – Ritchie11:16
xG 1.11–0.47 (70%)attempts 16–11goals 0–0
- Pageau – Duclair – Heineman9:01
xG 0.28–0.13 (68%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Cizikas – MacLean – Gatcomb7:10
xG 0.27–0.17 (61%)attempts 7–4goals 1–1
- Lee – Horvat – Holmstrom10:29
xG 0.63–0.70 (47%)attempts 14–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestDeAngelo – Schaefer10:28
xG 0.74–0.45 (62%)attempts 12–9goals 0–1
- Mayfield – Soucy6:50
xG 0.43–0.29 (60%)attempts 7–4goals 0–1
- Pelech – DeAngelo7:03
xG 0.52–0.40 (56%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).