Wed, Apr 15, 2026·Benchmark International Arena, Tampa
New York Rangers 4, Tampa Bay Lightning 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 16 | 39 | 06 | 421 |
| TBL | 08 | 19 | 114 | 231 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:02NYRTye KartyeAssists: Mika Zibanejad, Vladislav Gavrikov · Snap, 0.07 xG1–0
- P2 1:29NYRTye KartyeAssists: J.T. Miller, Conor Sheary · Snap, 0.12 xG2–0
- P2 4:49NYRGabe PerreaultGWGAssists: Will Cuylle, Tye Kartye · Wrist, 0.02 xG3–0
- P2 11:15TBLOliver BjorkstrandAssists: Scott Sabourin, Mitchell Chaffee · Backhand, 0.19 xG3–1
- P2 12:46NYRMika ZibanejadPPAssists: Alexis Lafrenière, J.T. Miller · Wrist, 0.15 xG4–1
- P3 0:51TBLCorey PerryAssists: Zemgus Girgensons, Emil Lilleberg · Backhand, 0.04 xG4–2
Penalties (10)
- P2 2:33TBLCharle-Edouard D'Astous: Hooking2 min
- P2 7:53NYRWill Cuylle: Tripping2 min
- P2 8:55TBLOliver Bjorkstrand: Hooking2 min
- P2 12:23TBLEmil Lilleberg: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P2 12:23NYRJaroslav Chmelar: Roughing2 min
- P2 12:23NYRWill Cuylle: Roughing2 min
- P2 12:23TBLCorey Perry: Roughing2 min
- P2 12:23TBLEmil Lilleberg: Roughing2 min
- P3 1:29NYRJaroslav Chmelar: Tripping2 min
- P3 16:47NYRTye Kartye: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zibanejad won the faceoff against Paul
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestMiller – Sheary – Kartye9:29
xG 0.65–0.17 (79%)attempts 10–11goals 1–1
- Trocheck – Cuylle – Chmelar10:40
xG 0.26–0.23 (53%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Raddysh – Sykora – Laba7:01
xG 0.29–0.54 (35%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
- Zibanejad – Lafrenière – Perreault13:30
xG 0.28–1.23 (18%)attempts 11–17goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Robertson – Fortescue2:06
xG 0.07–0.06 (54%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Schneider – Fortescue11:57
xG 0.19–0.19 (50%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
- Gavrikov – Schneider2:13
xG 0.16–0.30 (35%)attempts 2–3goals 0–1
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestKucherov – Paul – Hagel12:54
xG 1.61–0.39 (81%)attempts 22–10goals 0–0
- Gourde – Sabourin – Chaffee4:25
xG 0.54–0.10 (85%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Gourde – Pelletier – Goncalves2:58
xG 0.14–0.03 (83%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Perry – Girgensons – Pelletier4:10
xG 0.07–0.02 (78%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRaddysh – D'Astous11:19
xG 1.29–0.26 (83%)attempts 18–6goals 0–0
- Crozier – Carlile11:58
xG 0.93–0.16 (85%)attempts 13–4goals 1–1
- Crozier – Lilleberg2:22
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).