Thu, Apr 16, 2026·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Anaheim Ducks 5, Nashville Predators 4
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 88% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 210 | 114 | 216 | 540 |
| NSH | 29 | 28 | 04 | 421 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:36ANACutter GauthierAssists: Ryan Poehling, John Carlson · Snap, 0.10 xG1–0
- P1 10:09NSHSteven StamkosAssists: Cole O'Hara · Snap, 0.09 xG1–1
- P1 15:55NSHFilip ForsbergPPAssists: Ryan Ufko, Steven Stamkos · Tip-in, 0.08 xG1–2
- P1 19:39ANAJackson LaCombeAssists: Jacob Trouba, Mason McTavish · Snap, 0.04 xG2–2
- P2 4:33ANAAlex KillornAssists: John Carlson, Mikael Granlund · Slap, 0.01 xG3–2
- P2 14:37NSHFilip ForsbergAssists: Luke Evangelista, Ryan Ufko · Snap, 0.18 xG3–3
- P2 15:23NSHSteven StamkosPPAssists: Ryan O'Reilly, Luke Evangelista · Wrist, 0.16 xG3–4
- P3 4:17ANATristan LuneauAssists: Mikael Granlund, Jeffrey Viel · Wrist, 0.19 xG4–4
- P3 17:06ANATroy TerryPPGWGAssists: Mikael Granlund, Leo Carlsson · Wrist, 0.15 xG5–4
Penalties (8)
- P1 14:47ANACutter Gauthier: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 0:32NSHBrady Skjei: Hooking2 min
- P2 6:15NSHReid Schaefer: Tripping2 min
- P2 14:53ANAJohn Carlson: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 19:38ANAJeffrey Viel: Hooking2 min
- P3 6:09NSHRyan Ufko: Slashing2 min
- P3 10:58NSHFedor Svechkov: Tripping2 min
- P3 16:03NSHTyson Jost: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Carlsson won the faceoff against O'Reilly
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestKreider – Terry – Carlsson10:32
xG 0.60–0.06 (91%)attempts 15–6goals 0–0
- Killorn – Granlund – Viel5:21
xG 0.42–0.11 (79%)attempts 6–4goals 2–0
- Poehling – McTavish – Gauthier9:22
xG 0.61–0.33 (65%)attempts 19–8goals 1–0
- Killorn – Granlund – Sennecke3:47
xG 0.10–0.20 (34%)attempts 3–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHinds – Luneau8:16
xG 0.89–0.17 (84%)attempts 20–5goals 2–0
- Trouba – LaCombe15:15
xG 0.76–0.18 (81%)attempts 16–7goals 1–1
- Carlson – Mintyukov9:41
xG 0.05–0.32 (14%)attempts 7–11goals 1–0
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestL'Heureux – Svechkov – Kemell6:27
xG 0.23–0.17 (58%)attempts 6–9goals 0–1
- Forsberg – Svechkov – Kemell2:01
xG 0.09–0.10 (49%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Forsberg – Evangelista – Wood9:00
xG 0.48–0.54 (47%)attempts 8–6goals 1–1
- Stamkos – O'Reilly – O'Hara10:06
xG 0.13–0.36 (27%)attempts 6–13goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Barron – Wilsby12:39
xG 0.57–0.79 (42%)attempts 15–17goals 1–1
- Gravel – Ufko14:13
xG 0.39–0.95 (29%)attempts 7–19goals 1–1
- Skjei – Perbix12:47
xG 0.26–0.91 (22%)attempts 9–17goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 88% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).