Thu, Apr 16, 2026·Rogers Place, Edmonton
Vancouver Canucks 1, Edmonton Oilers 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 92% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 15 | 03 | 04 | 112 |
| EDM | 413 | 114 | 18 | 635 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:58EDMJosh SamanskiAssists: Colton Dach, Evan Bouchard · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–1
- P1 6:48EDMMatt SavoieGWGAssists: Evan Bouchard, Connor McDavid · Snap, 0.16 xG0–2
- P1 12:10VANTy MuellerAssists: Curtis Douglas, Kevin Lankinen · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–2
- P1 14:35EDMMatt SavoiePPAssists: Connor McDavid · Snap, 0.20 xG1–3
- P1 19:02EDMMatt SavoieAssists: Connor McDavid, Evan Bouchard · Snap, 0.14 xG1–4
- P2 16:46EDMRyan Nugent-HopkinsPPAssists: Zach Hyman, Connor McDavid · Bat, 0.10 xG1–5
- P3 8:20EDMColton DachAssists: Connor Murphy, Darnell Nurse · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–6
Penalties (9)
- P1 7:46EDMColton Dach: Fighting5 min
- P1 7:46VANElias Pettersson: Fighting5 min
- P1 12:48VANTeddy Blueger: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 3:20EDMConnor McDavid: Tripping2 min
- P2 3:20VANZeev Buium: High sticking double minor4 min
- P2 7:21VANDrew O'Connor: Fighting5 min
- P2 7:21EDMConnor Murphy: Fighting5 min
- P2 10:17EDMAdam Henrique: Tripping2 min
- P2 16:37VANElias Pettersson: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00McDavid won the faceoff against Pettersson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- DeBrusk – Pettersson – Karlsson6:05
xG 0.23–0.22 (52%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Hoglander – O'Connor – Rossi2:59
xG 0.16–0.15 (51%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Douglas – Räty – Mueller10:43
xG 0.25–0.28 (47%)attempts 6–8goals 1–0
- DeBrusk – Pettersson – Hoglander5:06
xG 0.00–0.26 (0%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Hronek – Pettersson2:06
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Pettersson – Willander4:24
xG 0.23–0.23 (50%)attempts 3–5goals 0–1
- Hronek – Kudryavtsev2:32
xG 0.01–0.07 (15%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestNugent-Hopkins – Roslovic – Podkolzin11:31
xG 0.96–0.26 (79%)attempts 18–4goals 0–0
- Hyman – McDavid – Savoie11:28
xG 0.74–0.28 (72%)attempts 14–6goals 1–0
- Frederic – Dach – Samanski10:24
xG 0.64–0.21 (75%)attempts 12–6goals 2–0
- Henrique – Lazar – Kapanen8:41
xG 0.38–0.05 (89%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWalman – Emberson15:57
xG 1.10–0.22 (84%)attempts 23–5goals 0–1
- Murphy – Nurse15:43
xG 0.96–0.51 (65%)attempts 18–11goals 1–0
- Ekholm – Bouchard14:50
xG 0.67–0.28 (70%)attempts 13–8goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 92% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).