Thu, Apr 16, 2026·Ball Arena, Denver
Seattle Kraken 0, Colorado Avalanche 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 90% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | 07 | 05 | 010 | 022 |
| COL | 017 | 111 | 17 | 235 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 17:38COLNick BlankenburgGWGAssists: Brent Burns, Valeri Nichushkin · Snap, 0.12 xG0–1
- P3 12:19COLParker KellyAssists: Cale Makar, Valeri Nichushkin · Snap, 0.20 xG0–2
Penalties (8)
- P1 15:41SEARyker Evans: High sticking2 min
- P2 0:28SEAVince Dunn: Tripping2 min
- P2 17:38SEAVince Dunn: Roughing2 min
- P3 1:09COLBrent Burns: Hooking2 min
- P3 5:36SEABerkly Catton: Hooking2 min
- P3 7:14COLSam Malinski: Interference2 min
- P3 13:55COLLogan O'Connor: Roughing2 min
- P3 13:55SEAVince Dunn: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Gaudreau won the faceoff against Bardakov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Seattle Kraken
Forward lines
- bestStephenson – Tolvanen – Catton5:50
xG 0.23–0.00 (100%)attempts 10–1goals 0–0
- Stephenson – Tolvanen – McMann2:29
xG 0.01–0.05 (14%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Kakko – Nyman – Wright6:24
xG 0.06–0.36 (15%)attempts 4–9goals 0–0
- Eberle – McMann – Beniers6:58
xG 0.07–0.46 (13%)attempts 4–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Lindgren – Fleury10:13
xG 0.18–0.59 (23%)attempts 4–12goals 0–1
- Montour – Evans12:31
xG 0.07–0.57 (12%)attempts 5–12goals 0–0
- Larsson – Dunn14:25
xG 0.09–0.94 (9%)attempts 13–24goals 0–1
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestNelson – Nichushkin – Kelly8:54
xG 0.49–0.06 (89%)attempts 9–3goals 2–0
- Drury – O'Connor – Kiviranta7:25
xG 0.50–0.07 (87%)attempts 13–5goals 0–0
- Lehkonen – Roy – Colton8:17
xG 0.36–0.07 (84%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
- Barré-Boulet – Bardakov – Polin8:33
xG 0.32–0.15 (68%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBurns – Blankenburg10:45
xG 0.70–0.04 (94%)attempts 18–3goals 1–0
- Toews – Makar12:06
xG 0.58–0.10 (85%)attempts 12–6goals 1–0
- Kulak – Malinski10:52
xG 0.38–0.07 (84%)attempts 13–11goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it SEA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 90% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − SEA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).