Wed, Sep 30, 2026·Xfinity Mobile Arena, Philadelphia
Pittsburgh Penguins 7, Philadelphia Flyers 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 89% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 211 | 315 | 212 | 738 |
| PHI | 05 | 07 | 07 | 019 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:26PITNick RobertsonGWGAssists: Kris Letang, Sidney Crosby · Tip-in, 0.04 xG1–0
- P1 15:44PITVille KoivunenAssists: Samuel Girard, Kaedan Korczak · Backhand, 0.14 xG2–0
- P2 5:03PITEvgeni MalkinPPAssists: Hendrix Lapierre, Tommy Novak · Slap, 0.15 xG3–0
- P2 7:26PITHendrix LapierreAssists: Filip Hallander, Declan Carlile · Snap, 0.10 xG4–0
- P2 10:23PITFilip HallanderAssists: Kaedan Korczak, Samuel Girard · Wrist, 0.24 xG5–0
- P3 11:52PITNick RobertsonSHAssists: Filip Hallander · Snap, 0.12 xG6–0
- P3 16:37PITEgor ChinakhovPPAssists: Erik Karlsson, Rickard Rakell · Tip-in, 0.10 xG7–0
Penalties (9)
- P1 10:42PHIJamie Drysdale: Holding2 min
- P2 3:23PHIPorter Martone: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P2 12:37PITNick Robertson: Boarding2 min
- P2 12:37PHISimon Benoit: Roughing2 min
- P2 12:37PITDeclan Carlile: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:42PHINick Seeler: Roughing2 min
- P3 4:26PITDeclan Carlile: Interference2 min
- P3 10:25PITConnor Dewar: Interference2 min
- P3 15:27PHITravis Konecny: Roughing2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Dvorak
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestHallander – Lapierre – Koivunen6:28
xG 1.22–0.02 (98%)attempts 11–2goals 3–0
- Crosby – Rakell – Robertson10:08
xG 0.96–0.23 (81%)attempts 15–6goals 1–0
- Dewar – Lizotte – Soderblom7:10
xG 0.26–0.08 (76%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
- Malkin – Novak – Chinakhov9:32
xG 0.17–0.21 (45%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGirard – Korczak14:24
xG 1.24–0.18 (88%)attempts 17–9goals 2–0
- Karlsson – Carlile11:04
xG 1.08–0.24 (82%)attempts 15–7goals 1–0
- Letang – van Riemsdyk13:23
xG 0.98–0.14 (87%)attempts 17–6goals 1–0
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestCouturier – Acciari – Grundstrom6:08
xG 0.22–0.13 (62%)attempts 6–5goals 0–1
- Acciari – Cates – Bump3:29
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Zegras – Bump – Martone2:08
xG 0.00–0.06 (0%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Tippett – Zegras – Martone4:22
xG 0.03–0.17 (16%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- York – Drysdale11:18
xG 0.28–0.43 (39%)attempts 7–11goals 0–1
- Seeler – Benoit16:30
xG 0.19–0.43 (31%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Ristolainen – Sanheim13:54
xG 0.22–1.71 (12%)attempts 13–25goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 89% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).