Thu, Oct 1, 2026·Prudential Center, Newark
Philadelphia Flyers 2, New Jersey Devils 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 85% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 16 | 08 | 18 | 03 | 225 |
| NJD | 014 | 116 | 111 | 13 | 344 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:12PHIRasmus RistolainenAssists: Travis Sanheim, Travis Konecny · Tip-in, 0.08 xG1–0
- P2 17:58NJDDougie HamiltonUnassisted · Snap, 0.06 xG1–1
- P3 5:33PHITravis SanheimAssists: Sean Couturier · Slap, 0.05 xG2–1
- P3 9:44NJDLuke HughesAssists: Luke Evangelista · Snap, 0.11 xG2–2
- OT 3:23NJDJack HughesGWGAssists: Jesper Bratt · Wrist, 0.20 xG2–3
Penalties (5)
- P1 7:19PHINoel Acciari: Holding2 min
- P1 11:31PHITrevor Zegras: Holding2 min
- P1 15:29PHISean Couturier: Boarding2 min
- P2 4:07NJDLuke Evangelista: Tripping2 min
- P3 0:37PHIChristian Dvorak: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Acciari won the faceoff against Hischier
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestCates – Foerster – Michkov7:52
xG 0.31–0.11 (75%)attempts 6–8goals 0–1
- Couturier – Acciari – Zegras2:51
xG 0.07–0.05 (59%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Dvorak – Konecny – Tippett4:40
xG 0.17–0.17 (50%)attempts 4–7goals 0–1
- Dvorak – Konecny – Martone6:37
xG 0.13–0.26 (33%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Seeler – Benoit9:47
xG 0.31–0.64 (32%)attempts 7–13goals 0–0
- York – Drysdale15:45
xG 0.25–0.87 (22%)attempts 8–31goals 0–1
- Ristolainen – Sanheim16:43
xG 0.50–1.33 (28%)attempts 14–24goals 1–1
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestMantha – Bratt – Hughes10:54
xG 0.75–0.16 (82%)attempts 17–5goals 1–0
- Rodrigues – Gritsyuk – Mercer10:55
xG 0.83–0.26 (76%)attempts 18–6goals 0–0
- Meier – Hischier – Evangelista8:40
xG 0.40–0.17 (71%)attempts 12–6goals 1–0
- Noesen – Glass – Lombardi4:25
xG 0.08–0.17 (31%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHamilton – Siegenthaler14:35
xG 1.17–0.38 (75%)attempts 26–14goals 1–1
- Pesce – Hughes14:06
xG 0.82–0.26 (76%)attempts 24–4goals 1–0
- Dillon – Chisholm12:38
xG 0.34–0.34 (50%)attempts 11–11goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 85% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).