Thu, Oct 1, 2026·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Seattle Kraken 6, Calgary Flames 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Seattle Kraken win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | 36 | 012 | 314 | 632 |
| CGY | 06 | 08 | 111 | 125 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:10SEAJordan EberlePPAssists: Jared McCann, Vince Dunn · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–0
- P1 9:42SEAVince DunnGWGAssists: Ryan Winterton, Shane Wright · Slap, 0.01 xG2–0
- P1 19:30SEAFrederick GaudreauAssists: Kaapo Kakko, Ryker Evans · Wrist, 0.09 xG3–0
- P3 3:13SEAChandler StephensonAssists: Vince Dunn, Joey Daccord · Backhand, 0.16 xG4–0
- P3 4:04SEAMatty BeniersAssists: Jared McCann · Slap, 0.07 xG5–0
- P3 16:35CGYRyan StromeAssists: Yegor Sharangovich, Connor Zary · Wrist, 0.04 xG5–1
- P3 17:01SEAKaapo KakkoAssists: Jared McCann, Matty Beniers · Poke, 0.11 xG6–1
Penalties (8)
- P1 9:04CGYMatvei Gridin: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 12:38SEAJosh Mahura: Cross checking2 min
- P1 0:00CGYMartin Pospisil: Tripping2 min
- P2 4:32CGYJoel Farabee: Holding2 min
- P2 7:37CGYKevin Bahl: Roughing2 min
- P2 7:37SEAJacob Melanson: Roughing2 min
- P2 8:27CGYJoel Farabee: Tripping2 min
- P2 16:33CGYAdam Klapka: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backlund won the faceoff against Stephenson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Seattle Kraken
Forward lines
- bestEberle – Stephenson – McMann8:27
xG 1.32–0.31 (81%)attempts 13–5goals 1–0
- Winterton – Wright – Catton9:50
xG 0.65–0.31 (68%)attempts 13–9goals 1–0
- McCann – Kakko – Beniers9:30
xG 0.28–0.25 (53%)attempts 7–7goals 2–0
- Gaudreau – Douglas – Melanson4:11
xG 0.23–0.21 (53%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMontour – Evans15:28
xG 1.25–0.39 (76%)attempts 19–14goals 2–0
- Larsson – Dunn13:54
xG 0.96–0.56 (63%)attempts 14–17goals 1–0
- Lindgren – Mahura11:44
xG 0.53–0.99 (35%)attempts 8–17goals 2–0
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestFrost – Coronato – Gridin9:31
xG 0.76–0.68 (53%)attempts 16–11goals 0–1
- Backlund – Farabee – Honzek10:03
xG 0.60–0.56 (52%)attempts 9–12goals 0–1
- Strome – Sharangovich – Zary10:54
xG 0.63–0.63 (50%)attempts 14–8goals 1–2
- Pospisil – Klapka – Tsyplakov9:06
xG 0.17–0.32 (36%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKuznetsov – Parekh2:15
xG 0.16–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
- Bahl – Nemec14:15
xG 0.75–0.94 (44%)attempts 14–14goals 0–0
- Middleton – Parekh12:42
xG 0.67–0.87 (43%)attempts 14–11goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it SEA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Seattle Kraken win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − SEA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).