Fri, Oct 2, 2026·Canada Life Centre, Winnipeg
Boston Bruins 4, Winnipeg Jets 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 29 | 08 | 112 | 11 | 430 |
| WPG | 112 | 212 | 08 | 01 | 333 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:52WPGDylan DeMeloAssists: Morgan Barron, Adam Lowry · Slap, 0.01 xG0–1
- P1 9:23BOSHampus LindholmAssists: Morgan Geekie, Will Borgen · Slap, 0.02 xG1–1
- P1 15:20BOSJames HagensAssists: Nikita Zadorov, Mark Kastelic · Wrist, 0.19 xG2–1
- P2 1:50WPGKyle ConnorPPAssists: Gabriel Vilardi, Cole Perfetti · Snap, 0.17 xG2–2
- P2 19:52WPGMario FerraroAssists: Adam Lowry, Kyle Connor · Wrist, 0.01 xG2–3
- P3 18:22BOSElias LindholmAssists: David Pastrnak, Mason Lohrei · Tip-in, 0.06 xG3–3
- OT 3:21BOSJJ PeterkaGWGAssists: David Pastrnak, Nikita Zadorov · Wrist, 0.10 xG4–3
Penalties (9)
- P1 2:24BOSJonathan Aspirot: Cross checking2 min
- P1 7:08BOSMark Kastelic: Fighting5 min
- P1 7:08WPGTyrel Bauer: Fighting5 min
- P2 1:34BOSElias Lindholm: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 2:19WPGTyrel Bauer: Roughing2 min
- P2 2:19WPGTyrel Bauer: Cross checking2 min
- P2 2:19BOSSean Kuraly: Roughing2 min
- P2 16:05WPGMorgan Barron: Tripping2 min
- P3 7:55BOSJonathan Aspirot: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Scheifele won the faceoff against Zacha
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestLindholm – Pastrnak – Peterka10:21
xG 0.48–0.27 (64%)attempts 18–12goals 0–1
- Khusnutdinov – Minten – Hagens9:44
xG 0.20–0.10 (67%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Zacha – Mittelstadt – Peterka2:01
xG 0.05–0.02 (77%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Kuraly – Jeannot – Kastelic6:01
xG 0.07–0.17 (28%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestClifton – Zadorov14:00
xG 0.82–0.37 (69%)attempts 17–12goals 1–2
- Lindholm – Borgen13:47
xG 0.73–0.68 (52%)attempts 22–14goals 1–0
- Aspirot – Lohrei14:47
xG 0.34–0.42 (44%)attempts 11–13goals 0–0
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestScheifele – Connor – Perfetti11:29
xG 0.87–0.42 (68%)attempts 13–15goals 0–1
- Vilardi – Rosen – Björck9:15
xG 0.20–0.00 (99%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Niederreiter – Namestnikov – Iafallo7:18
xG 0.02–0.21 (8%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
- Lowry – Barron – Lambert9:03
xG 0.13–0.56 (19%)attempts 8–17goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDeMelo – Morrissey10:17
xG 0.69–0.31 (69%)attempts 7–12goals 0–1
- Morrissey – Pionk3:19
xG 0.20–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
- Ferraro – Bauer4:38
xG 0.06–0.05 (54%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).