Sat, Oct 3, 2026·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Utah Mammoth 4, Columbus Blue Jackets 1
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Utah Mammoth win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UTA | 213 | 07 | 211 | 431 |
| CBJ | 05 | 17 | 07 | 119 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:55UTAMikhail SergachevPPAssists: Dylan Guenther, Clayton Keller · Slap, 0.05 xG1–0
- P1 16:31UTANick SchmaltzGWGAssists: Clayton Keller, John Marino · Snap, 0.03 xG2–0
- P2 1:30CBJKent JohnsonAssists: Matthew Knies · Snap, 0.08 xG2–1
- P3 5:59UTADylan GuentherPPAssists: Logan Cooley, Mikhail Sergachev · Slap, 0.08 xG3–1
- P3 14:13UTANick SchmaltzPPAssists: Logan Cooley, Dylan Guenther · Wrist, 0.21 xG4–1
Penalties (6)
- P1 2:22CBJDenton Mateychuk: Slashing2 min
- P1 10:45CBJDmitri Voronkov: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 1:01UTAMikhail Sergachev: Holding2 min
- P3 5:43CBJDenton Mateychuk: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 7:43UTAJohn Marino: Holding2 min
- P3 13:23CBJEmil Andrae: Slashing2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Fantilli won the faceoff against Hayton
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Utah Mammoth
Forward lines
- bestLee – Guenther – Cooley9:03
xG 0.65–0.30 (68%)attempts 16–5goals 0–0
- Stenlund – Carcone – But9:25
xG 0.43–0.19 (69%)attempts 15–4goals 0–0
- Trocheck – Schmaltz – Keller10:29
xG 0.39–0.68 (36%)attempts 8–13goals 1–1
- Crouse – Hayton – McBain9:42
xG 0.11–0.43 (21%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWeegar – Sergachev13:07
xG 0.72–0.49 (59%)attempts 20–10goals 0–1
- Marino – Simashev3:04
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Peeke – Simashev9:54
xG 0.45–0.43 (51%)attempts 12–10goals 0–0
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestJohnson – Knies – Fantilli12:35
xG 0.53–0.24 (69%)attempts 12–11goals 1–0
- Heinen – Lomberg – Voronkov4:17
xG 0.45–0.25 (64%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Coyle – Olivier – Sillinger10:04
xG 0.58–0.50 (54%)attempts 13–10goals 0–0
- Monahan – Nichushkin – Garland6:54
xG 0.03–0.04 (46%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWerenski – Mateychuk19:43
xG 0.79–0.20 (80%)attempts 18–14goals 0–0
- Soucy – Christiansen2:26
xG 0.39–0.01 (97%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Gudbranson – Werenski2:43
xG 0.14–0.12 (55%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it UTA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Utah Mammoth win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − UTA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).