Sat, Oct 3, 2026·UBS Arena, Elmont
New Jersey Devils 0, New York Islanders 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 07 | 019 | 011 | 037 |
| NYI | 09 | 312 | 311 | 632 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 3:32NYISimon HolmstromGWGAssists: Jean-Gabriel Pageau, Adam Pelech · Wrist, 0.15 xG0–1
- P2 5:00NYIBrayden SchennAssists: Victor Eklund, Matthew Schaefer · Snap, 0.28 xG0–2
- P2 12:08NYIBo HorvatPPAssists: Matthew Schaefer · Wrist, 0.18 xG0–3
- P3 11:32NYIVictor EklundAssists: Calum Ritchie, Brayden Schenn · Wrist, 0.14 xG0–4
- P3 12:14NYIOndrej PalatAssists: Casey Cizikas, Logan Stanley · Snap, 0.17 xG0–5
- P3 18:41NYICasey CizikasSHAssists: Simon Holmstrom, Logan Stanley · Wrist, 0.32 xG0–6
Penalties (8)
- P1 6:35NJDAmadeus Lombardi: Hooking2 min
- P1 12:10NJDAmadeus Lombardi: Tripping2 min
- P1 15:54NYILogan Stanley: Holding2 min
- P1 19:00NYIVictor Eklund: Tripping2 min
- P2 11:23NJDLuke Hughes: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 15:05NYIKyle Palmieri: Cross checking2 min
- P3 7:07NYIBo Horvat: Slashing2 min
- P3 17:30NYIKyle Palmieri: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Horvat won the faceoff against Rodrigues
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestMeier – Hischier – Evangelista8:46
xG 0.39–0.15 (72%)attempts 9–2goals 0–0
- Mantha – Bratt – Hughes8:40
xG 0.45–0.23 (66%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Rodrigues – Gritsyuk – Mercer8:05
xG 0.51–0.34 (60%)attempts 17–4goals 0–1
- Meier – Hughes – Evangelista2:20
xG 0.23–0.22 (52%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPesce – Hughes13:18
xG 0.95–0.35 (73%)attempts 16–5goals 0–0
- Hamilton – Siegenthaler15:46
xG 1.06–0.62 (63%)attempts 25–8goals 0–1
- Dillon – Chisholm9:10
xG 0.30–0.46 (39%)attempts 10–9goals 0–1
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestCizikas – Palat – Maccelli6:55
xG 0.41–0.07 (85%)attempts 6–3goals 1–0
- Schenn – Ritchie – Eklund8:26
xG 0.95–0.77 (55%)attempts 11–13goals 2–0
- Pageau – Duclair – Holmstrom9:04
xG 0.25–0.27 (48%)attempts 3–7goals 1–0
- Palmieri – Horvat – Heineman8:56
xG 0.19–0.80 (19%)attempts 2–19goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPelech – Schaefer11:46
xG 0.82–0.38 (68%)attempts 7–10goals 2–0
- DeAngelo – Schaefer2:41
xG 0.18–0.05 (78%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Stanley – Romanov3:09
xG 0.04–0.13 (23%)attempts 1–7goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).