Sun, Oct 4, 2026·Climate Pledge Arena, Seattle
Calgary Flames 1, Seattle Kraken 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 011 | 010 | 112 | 133 |
| SEA | 38 | 28 | 111 | 627 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:22SEABerkly CattonUnassisted · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–1
- P1 4:40SEAMackie SamoskevichGWGAssists: Brandon Montour, Ryker Evans · Backhand, 0.13 xG0–2
- P1 7:40SEABobby McMannAssists: Chandler Stephenson · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–3
- P2 11:58SEAShane WrightAssists: Berkly Catton, Vince Dunn · Backhand, 0.12 xG0–4
- P2 19:34SEAMackie SamoskevichAssists: Matty Beniers, Jared McCann · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–5
- P3 14:25CGYMorgan FrostPPAssists: Matvei Gridin, Joel Farabee · Tip-in, 0.11 xG1–5
- P3 15:04SEAJordan EberleAssists: Chandler Stephenson, Brandon Montour · Snap, 0.07 xG1–6
Penalties (3)
- P1 8:11SEAMackie Samoskevich: High sticking2 min
- P3 13:33SEAVille Ottavainen: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 0:00SEARyan Lindgren: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Beniers won the faceoff against Backlund
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestPospisil – Klapka – Tsyplakov6:22
xG 0.46–0.31 (60%)attempts 11–5goals 0–1
- Backlund – Farabee – Gridin10:06
xG 0.68–0.54 (56%)attempts 12–16goals 0–2
- Strome – Pospisil – Honzek5:01
xG 0.20–0.08 (71%)attempts 6–2goals 0–1
- Backlund – Farabee – Coronato2:07
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMiddleton – Parekh14:46
xG 0.87–0.53 (62%)attempts 18–12goals 0–0
- Whitecloud – Bahl16:24
xG 0.55–0.61 (47%)attempts 15–14goals 0–2
- Kuznetsov – Nemec18:00
xG 0.64–1.06 (37%)attempts 28–19goals 0–2
Seattle Kraken
Forward lines
- bestKakko – Wright – Catton11:47
xG 0.72–0.41 (64%)attempts 13–18goals 2–0
- Eberle – Stephenson – McMann12:51
xG 0.62–0.42 (60%)attempts 13–19goals 2–0
- McCann – Beniers – Samoskevich13:21
xG 0.40–0.35 (53%)attempts 10–12goals 2–0
- Gaudreau – Samoskevich – Winterton2:33
xG 0.12–0.16 (43%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMontour – Evans21:55
xG 1.19–0.43 (74%)attempts 21–18goals 2–0
- Lindgren – Ottavainen14:59
xG 0.70–0.64 (52%)attempts 13–18goals 1–0
- Larsson – Dunn17:38
xG 0.62–1.10 (36%)attempts 17–36goals 2–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SEA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SEA is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SEA − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).