Sun, Oct 4, 2026·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
Vegas Golden Knights 3, Vancouver Canucks 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 87% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK | 012 | 314 | 02 | 328 |
| VAN | 16 | 15 | 09 | 220 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 18:52VANPaul CotterPPAssists: Filip Hronek, Elias Pettersson · Tip-in, 0.09 xG0–1
- P2 9:01VGKMitch MarnerAssists: Brayden McNabb · Snap, 0.16 xG1–1
- P2 14:30VGKVictor OlofssonPPAssists: Mark Stone, Jack Eichel · Snap, 0.06 xG2–1
- P2 17:54VANJonathan LekkerimäkiAssists: Linus Karlsson, Luke Schenn · Snap, 0.06 xG2–2
- P2 18:28VGKMarc GatcombGWGAssists: Braeden Bowman, Nic Dowd · Snap, 0.18 xG3–2
Penalties (8)
- P1 1:53VGKMark Stone: Slashing2 min
- P1 6:35VANJamie Oleksiak: Cross checking2 min
- P1 9:17VANAatu Räty: Interference2 min
- P1 18:17VGKTomas Hertl: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 3:40VANBrendan Gallagher: Slashing2 min
- P2 14:00VANTom Willander: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 3:50VANLuke Schenn: Interference2 min
- P3 5:13VGKJack Eichel: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Cotter won the faceoff against Karlsson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestHertl – Olofsson – Connelly8:19
xG 0.92–0.20 (82%)attempts 14–5goals 0–0
- Karlsson – Marner – Howden11:08
xG 0.63–0.20 (76%)attempts 10–6goals 1–0
- Stone – Barbashev – Eichel10:50
xG 0.36–0.24 (60%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Dowd – Gatcomb – Bowman6:12
xG 0.19–0.08 (70%)attempts 4–4goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestAndersson – Wotherspoon11:55
xG 1.08–0.12 (90%)attempts 13–3goals 0–0
- Hanifin – Lauzon13:13
xG 0.86–0.08 (91%)attempts 15–5goals 0–0
- McNabb – Theodore14:00
xG 0.54–0.52 (51%)attempts 11–14goals 2–0
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestBains – Lekkerimäki – Sasson4:17
xG 0.17–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Pettersson – Karlsson – Rossi7:09
xG 0.13–0.01 (96%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Pettersson – Karlsson – Ohgren3:26
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Gallagher – Räty – Lekkerimäki3:00
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Hronek – Buium4:53
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Schenn – Pettersson2:42
xG 0.08–0.12 (39%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Oleksiak – Hronek3:12
xG 0.04–0.14 (24%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it VGK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 87% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − VGK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).