Mon, Oct 5, 2026·TD Garden, Boston
Ottawa Senators 4, Boston Bruins 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 27 | 26 | 011 | 424 |
| BOS | 05 | 05 | 19 | 119 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:39OTTTim StützleSHAssists: Michael Amadio · Snap, 0.19 xG1–0
- P1 9:22OTTTim StützleGWGUnassisted · Snap, 0.13 xG2–0
- P2 1:06OTTDrake BathersonAssists: Tim Stützle · Backhand, 0.16 xG3–0
- P2 5:19OTTMichael AmadioAssists: Shane Pinto, Nick Cousins · Snap, 0.18 xG4–0
- P3 3:30BOSJames HagensUnassisted · Snap, 0.01 xG4–1
Penalties (11)
- P1 7:19OTTWarren Foegele: Interference2 min
- P1 13:33OTTHayden Hodgson: Hooking2 min
- P1 15:15BOSJames Hagens: Slashing2 min
- P1 15:22BOSMatthew Poitras: Tripping2 min
- P2 7:58OTTNikolas Matinpalo: Interference2 min
- P2 8:02BOSElias Lindholm: Interference2 min
- P2 15:36OTTThomas Chabot: Tripping2 min
- P3 19:56BOSNikita Zadorov: Interference2 min
- P3 19:56BOSTanner Jeannot: Misconduct10 min
- P3 19:56BOSNikita Zadorov: Misconduct10 min
- P3 19:56OTTNick Cousins: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Pinto won the faceoff against Minten
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestZetterlund – Cozens – Eklund11:55
xG 0.61–0.27 (70%)attempts 13–7goals 0–0
- Cousins – Hodgson – Halliday3:47
xG 0.10–0.12 (46%)attempts 7–3goals 0–1
- Giroux – Amadio – Pinto8:01
xG 0.06–0.12 (32%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Foegele – Batherson – Stützle9:01
xG 0.17–0.40 (30%)attempts 4–9goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestKleven – Matinpalo6:26
xG 0.39–0.10 (79%)attempts 7–2goals 1–0
- Crotty – Matinpalo8:23
xG 0.18–0.34 (34%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Chabot – Spence18:44
xG 0.96–1.14 (46%)attempts 20–20goals 2–1
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestPastrnak – Zacha – Geekie5:34
xG 0.38–0.01 (97%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Jeannot – Poitras – Hagens5:10
xG 0.38–0.21 (65%)attempts 4–9goals 1–0
- Lindholm – Pastrnak – Geekie2:59
xG 0.12–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Kastelic – Khusnutdinov – Minten5:15
xG 0.14–0.05 (72%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLindholm – Borgen11:30
xG 0.36–0.04 (89%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Lindholm – Zadorov2:04
xG 0.37–0.19 (66%)attempts 2–2goals 0–1
- Clifton – Zadorov15:30
xG 0.35–0.41 (46%)attempts 8–10goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).