Mon, Oct 5, 2026·American Airlines Center, Dallas
San Jose Sharks 0, Dallas Stars 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 84% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 02 | 05 | 06 | 013 |
| DAL | 111 | 39 | 16 | 526 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 18:51DALMiro HeiskanenGWGAssists: Roope Hintz, Jamie Benn · Backhand, 0.03 xG0–1
- P2 3:17DALJoel KivirantaAssists: Oskar Bäck, Radek Faksa · Snap, 0.05 xG0–2
- P2 6:19DALJamie BennAssists: Jason Robertson, Roope Hintz · Snap, 0.25 xG0–3
- P2 16:30DALJason RobertsonUnassisted · Wrist, 0.12 xG0–4
- P3 15:22DALMikko RantanenAssists: Sam Steel · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–5
Penalties (5)
- P1 13:01SJSTyler Toffoli: Hooking2 min
- P2 8:21DALOskar Bäck: High sticking2 min
- P2 11:04SJSSam Dickinson: Holding2 min
- P3 2:11DALLian Bichsel: Interference2 min
- P3 7:37SJSDmitry Orlov: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Wennberg won the faceoff against Johnston
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestGoodrow – Ostapchuk – Graf5:19
xG 0.20–0.01 (94%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Toffoli – Wennberg – Sherwood6:26
xG 0.45–0.31 (59%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Dellandrea – Graf – Stenberg4:02
xG 0.05–0.01 (86%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Toffoli – Chernyshov – Misa3:50
xG 0.00–0.13 (0%)attempts 0–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Orlov – Cagnoni12:56
xG 0.49–0.60 (45%)attempts 7–7goals 0–1
- Trouba – Dickinson12:14
xG 0.27–0.80 (25%)attempts 7–19goals 0–2
- Nurse – Kesselring14:38
xG 0.16–1.08 (13%)attempts 9–22goals 0–1
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestRantanen – Steel – Johnston9:41
xG 0.86–0.14 (86%)attempts 13–9goals 1–0
- Benn – Hintz – Robertson10:19
xG 0.72–0.07 (92%)attempts 15–4goals 2–0
- Faksa – Bäck – Kiviranta8:20
xG 0.44–0.27 (62%)attempts 10–3goals 1–0
- Seguin – Hryckowian – Hyry10:17
xG 0.34–0.20 (63%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLindell – Heiskanen9:14
xG 1.27–0.29 (81%)attempts 17–6goals 2–0
- Lundkvist – Harley11:41
xG 0.79–0.23 (77%)attempts 17–8goals 2–0
- Myers – Bichsel13:04
xG 0.47–0.14 (77%)attempts 12–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 84% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).