Tue, Oct 6, 2026·Prudential Center, Newark
Utah Mammoth 5, New Jersey Devils 3
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Utah Mammoth win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UTA | 18 | 314 | 19 | 531 |
| NJD | 111 | 110 | 112 | 333 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:57UTAClayton KellerPPAssists: Mikhail Sergachev, Logan Cooley · Slap, 0.06 xG1–0
- P1 12:23NJDLuke EvangelistaPPAssists: Jack Hughes, Jesper Bratt · Tip-in, 0.11 xG1–1
- P2 1:42UTAMacKenzie WeegarAssists: Anders Lee, Mikhail Sergachev · Backhand, 0.06 xG2–1
- P2 6:31NJDLuke EvangelistaAssists: Timo Meier · Tip-in, 0.08 xG2–2
- P2 12:05UTANick SchmaltzPPAssists: Dylan Guenther, Mikhail Sergachev · Wrist, 0.17 xG3–2
- P2 19:03UTALawson CrouseGWGAssists: Barrett Hayton, Nick Schmaltz · Tip-in, 0.10 xG4–2
- P3 9:49NJDJesper BoqvistAssists: Dougie Hamilton, Declan Chisholm · Backhand, 0.09 xG4–3
- P3 16:52UTAVincent TrocheckAssists: Nick Schmaltz, Clayton Keller · Wrist, 0.25 xG5–3
Penalties (11)
- P1 0:10NJDTimo Meier: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P1 4:11UTADmitri Simashev: Cross checking2 min
- P1 7:12NJDBrenden Dillon: Tripping2 min
- P1 11:37UTAMacKenzie Weegar: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P1 12:05UTALawson Crouse: Hooking2 min
- P2 10:50NJDTimo Meier: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 15:59UTAMacKenzie Weegar: Slashing2 min
- P3 5:36NJDBrenden Dillon: Roughing2 min
- P3 5:36NJDBrenden Dillon: Fighting5 min
- P3 5:36UTAJack McBain: Fighting5 min
- P3 18:46UTAMacKenzie Weegar: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hischier won the faceoff against Hayton
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Utah Mammoth
Forward lines
- bestTrocheck – Schmaltz – Keller8:19
xG 0.46–0.30 (60%)attempts 8–5goals 1–1
- Lee – Guenther – Cooley7:44
xG 0.33–0.21 (62%)attempts 5–4goals 1–0
- Stenlund – Carcone – But8:35
xG 0.22–0.20 (52%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
- Crouse – Hayton – McBain7:46
xG 0.16–0.49 (25%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMarino – Simashev4:27
xG 0.26–0.02 (93%)attempts 2–1goals 1–0
- Schmidt – Weegar3:23
xG 0.31–0.18 (64%)attempts 5–5goals 1–0
- Weegar – Sergachev5:38
xG 0.48–0.36 (57%)attempts 11–7goals 1–1
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestMantha – Rodrigues – Mercer2:18
xG 0.17–0.08 (67%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Meier – Hischier – Evangelista10:41
xG 0.27–0.27 (50%)attempts 9–10goals 1–0
- Bratt – Hughes – Gritsyuk3:46
xG 0.13–0.13 (50%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Mantha – Bratt – Hughes5:52
xG 0.42–0.43 (49%)attempts 5–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHamilton – Chisholm4:20
xG 0.31–0.02 (93%)attempts 5–1goals 1–0
- Pesce – Hughes16:25
xG 0.73–0.65 (53%)attempts 23–15goals 1–1
- Dillon – Chisholm8:25
xG 0.09–0.21 (29%)attempts 4–11goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it UTA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Utah Mammoth win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − UTA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).