Tue, Oct 6, 2026·Madison Square Garden, New York
New York Islanders 2, New York Rangers 5
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 88% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 09 | 25 | 05 | 219 |
| NYR | 15 | 27 | 212 | 524 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:40NYROliver BjorkstrandAssists: Alexis Lafrenière, Sean Durzi · Slap, 0.06 xG0–1
- P2 0:25NYRAlexis LafrenièreAssists: Mika Zibanejad, Vladislav Gavrikov · Snap, 0.04 xG0–2
- P2 2:56NYIBo HorvatPPAssists: Matias Maccelli, Brayden Schenn · Snap, 0.14 xG1–2
- P2 4:52NYICalum RitchieAssists: Brayden Schenn · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–2
- P2 17:07NYROliver BjorkstrandPPGWGAssists: Gabe Perreault, Will Cuylle · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–3
- P3 18:22NYRAlexis LafrenièreENAssists: J.T. Miller, Mika Zibanejad · Wrist, 0.74 xG2–4
- P3 18:54NYRAlexis LafrenièreENAssists: Adam Fox, Vladislav Gavrikov · Wrist, 0.65 xG2–5
Penalties (13)
- P1 7:21NYRCole Beaudoin: Interference2 min
- P1 12:13NYIBrayden Schenn: Fighting5 min
- P1 12:13NYRJ.T. Miller: Fighting5 min
- P1 12:41NYIVictor Eklund: Holding2 min
- P1 16:57NYRAlexis Lafrenière: Slashing2 min
- P2 2:02NYREeli Tolvanen: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 12:11NYICasey Cizikas: Roughing2 min
- P2 12:11NYRAlberts Smits: Roughing2 min
- P2 15:28NYIBrayden Schenn: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 4:25NYRTye Kartye: Holding2 min
- P3 19:47NYIAdam Pelech: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:47NYROliver Bjorkstrand: Fighting5 min
- P3 19:47NYIAdam Pelech: Fighting5 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Horvat won the faceoff against Miller
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestCizikas – Palat – Maccelli6:10
xG 0.21–0.04 (83%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Schenn – Ritchie – Eklund9:01
xG 0.53–0.38 (58%)attempts 12–5goals 1–0
- Cizikas – Palat – Heineman2:33
xG 0.12–0.03 (80%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Palmieri – Horvat – Heineman9:43
xG 0.24–0.40 (38%)attempts 3–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPulock – Romanov9:36
xG 0.56–0.18 (75%)attempts 9–7goals 0–1
- DeAngelo – Stanley9:59
xG 0.29–0.04 (88%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Pelech – Schaefer12:10
xG 0.53–0.48 (52%)attempts 13–11goals 1–1
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestMiller – Dorofeyev – Kartye9:16
xG 0.48–0.30 (61%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
- Zibanejad – Lafrenière – Perreault11:16
xG 0.67–0.56 (54%)attempts 14–7goals 1–0
- Bjorkstrand – Chmelar – Beaudoin6:14
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Tolvanen – Cuylle – Laba8:12
xG 0.09–0.24 (28%)attempts 3–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPettersson – Durzi11:21
xG 0.74–0.54 (58%)attempts 12–8goals 0–1
- Schneider – Smits8:34
xG 0.34–0.24 (58%)attempts 11–13goals 1–0
- Fox – Smits4:31
xG 0.12–0.12 (50%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 88% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).