Tue, Oct 6, 2026·Crypto.com Arena, Los Angeles
Florida Panthers 2, Los Angeles Kings 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 08 | 113 | 19 | 230 |
| LAK | 16 | 010 | 04 | 120 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 19:00LAKAlex LaferriereAssists: Erik Haula · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–1
- P2 3:49FLASeth JonesAssists: Lars Eller · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–1
- P3 11:20FLAMatthew TkachukGWGAssists: Sam Bennett · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–1
Penalties (11)
- P1 10:03LAKMikey Anderson: Roughing2 min
- P1 15:37FLAEetu Luostarinen: Tripping2 min
- P1 19:04FLAEetu Luostarinen: Interference2 min
- P1 19:43FLADmitry Kulikov: High sticking double minor4 min
- P2 5:19LAKAlex Turcotte: Tripping2 min
- P2 7:40FLAGarnet Hathaway: Fighting5 min
- P2 7:40LAKJoel Edmundson: Fighting5 min
- P2 8:53LAKBrandt Clarke: Interference2 min
- P2 19:07LAKBrandt Clarke: High sticking double minor4 min
- P3 6:33LAKArtemi Panarin: Tripping2 min
- P3 6:37FLASam Bennett: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Byfield won the faceoff against Bennett
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestMarchand – Reinhart – Tkachuk4:47
xG 0.34–0.07 (83%)attempts 8–2goals 0–1
- Eller – Hathaway – Imama3:52
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Luostarinen – Lundell – Vilmanis7:02
xG 0.24–0.16 (60%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Verhaeghe – Bennett – Tkachuk9:53
xG 0.25–0.45 (35%)attempts 7–11goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestKulikov – Forsling11:24
xG 0.35–0.13 (73%)attempts 16–6goals 1–0
- Jones – Mikkola12:17
xG 0.17–0.18 (49%)attempts 9–6goals 0–1
- Gudas – Balinskis8:05
xG 0.34–0.37 (48%)attempts 9–12goals 0–0
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestHaula – Armia – Moore2:12
xG 0.07–0.00 (93%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Armia – Laughton – Moore4:40
xG 0.18–0.13 (59%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Haula – Zuccarello – Laferriere4:39
xG 0.12–0.17 (40%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Kempe – Panarin – Byfield8:38
xG 0.09–0.18 (32%)attempts 5–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestEdmundson – Ceci2:50
xG 0.25–0.07 (78%)attempts 7–3goals 1–0
- Gustafsson – Clarke6:50
xG 0.18–0.18 (50%)attempts 6–6goals 0–1
- Doughty – Dumoulin4:34
xG 0.06–0.06 (46%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
LAK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line LAK is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (LAK − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).