Thu, Oct 8, 2026·TD Garden, Boston
Utah Mammoth 1, Boston Bruins 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Utah Mammoth win this game 82% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UTA | 017 | 013 | 17 | 137 |
| BOS | 39 | 37 | 06 | 622 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:06BOSCasey MittelstadtAssists: James Hagens, Elias Lindholm · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–1
- P1 14:22BOSDavid PastrnakPPGWGAssists: Frederic Brunet, Morgan Geekie · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–2
- P1 15:51BOSMason LohreiAssists: Matthew Poitras, Mark Kastelic · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–3
- P2 4:40BOSDavid PastrnakPPAssists: Morgan Geekie, Hampus Lindholm · Slap, 0.08 xG0–4
- P2 7:57BOSMorgan GeekiePPAssists: David Pastrnak, Pavel Zacha · Slap, 0.10 xG0–5
- P2 14:08BOSMatthew PoitrasAssists: David Pastrnak · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–6
- P3 9:48UTAJack McBainAssists: Dmitri Simashev, Barrett Hayton · Snap, 0.23 xG1–6
Penalties (11)
- P1 6:40BOSTanner Jeannot: Slashing2 min
- P1 14:16UTALawson Crouse: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 3:29UTAVincent Trocheck: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 5:09BOSJJ Peterka: Tripping2 min
- P2 7:21UTAMichael Carcone: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 8:25BOSWill Borgen: Interference2 min
- P2 11:50BOSWill Borgen: Hooking2 min
- P2 14:43BOSWill Borgen: High sticking2 min
- P2 18:15BOSPavel Zacha: Slashing2 min
- P3 16:13BOSMark Kastelic: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 18:00UTAClayton Keller: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zacha won the faceoff against Hayton
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Utah Mammoth
Forward lines
- bestCrouse – Hayton – McBain9:27
xG 1.21–0.26 (83%)attempts 17–6goals 1–0
- Trocheck – Schmaltz – Keller9:55
xG 0.77–0.53 (59%)attempts 15–6goals 0–1
- Stenlund – Carcone – But5:59
xG 0.31–0.27 (54%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Lee – Guenther – Cooley8:23
xG 0.21–0.40 (34%)attempts 9–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestWeegar – Sergachev9:43
xG 0.72–0.18 (81%)attempts 18–4goals 0–1
- Peeke – Simashev8:31
xG 0.83–0.36 (70%)attempts 14–5goals 0–1
- Weegar – Simashev2:42
xG 0.35–0.14 (72%)attempts 4–3goals 1–0
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- Lindholm – Mittelstadt – Hagens8:34
xG 0.19–0.27 (42%)attempts 3–13goals 1–0
- Jeannot – Kastelic – Poitras6:45
xG 0.43–0.52 (46%)attempts 5–10goals 1–0
- Peterka – Khusnutdinov – Minten8:41
xG 0.70–0.90 (44%)attempts 7–13goals 0–1
- Pastrnak – Zacha – Geekie9:27
xG 0.25–0.62 (29%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Lohrei – Brunet11:53
xG 0.61–0.63 (49%)attempts 10–15goals 1–0
- Clifton – Zadorov11:57
xG 0.87–1.25 (41%)attempts 8–19goals 1–0
- Lindholm – Borgen12:29
xG 0.45–0.92 (33%)attempts 10–18goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it UTA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Utah Mammoth win this game 82% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − UTA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).