Thu, Oct 8, 2026·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
Dallas Stars 4, Buffalo Sabres 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 18 | 37 | 03 | 418 |
| BUF | 05 | 010 | 011 | 026 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:03DALJason RobertsonGWGAssists: Mikko Rantanen, Wyatt Johnston · Snap, 0.10 xG1–0
- P2 9:36DALSam SteelAssists: Thomas Harley, Mikko Rantanen · Snap, 0.06 xG2–0
- P2 13:57DALMikko RantanenAssists: Nils Lundkvist, Wyatt Johnston · Backhand, 0.14 xG3–0
- P2 15:34DALRoope HintzPPAssists: Wyatt Johnston, Mikko Rantanen · Snap, 0.15 xG4–0
Penalties (5)
- P1 19:50BUFBeck Malenstyn: Tripping2 min
- P2 1:50DALMiro Heiskanen: Hooking2 min
- P2 15:01BUFJack Quinn: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P2 17:30DALNils Lundkvist: Holding2 min
- P3 7:54DALLian Bichsel: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Johnston won the faceoff against Kulich
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestBlackwell – Faksa – Bäck6:46
xG 0.69–0.41 (63%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Benn – Hintz – Robertson9:19
xG 0.44–0.33 (57%)attempts 12–7goals 0–0
- Rantanen – Steel – Johnston6:51
xG 0.27–0.23 (54%)attempts 3–8goals 1–0
- Seguin – Rantanen – Johnston3:33
xG 0.02–0.13 (15%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLundkvist – Harley15:14
xG 0.64–0.34 (65%)attempts 14–12goals 2–0
- Lindell – Heiskanen13:44
xG 0.73–0.76 (49%)attempts 5–17goals 0–0
- Myers – Bichsel13:45
xG 0.16–0.53 (23%)attempts 8–15goals 0–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestThompson – Krebs – Doan7:40
xG 0.63–0.05 (93%)attempts 12–3goals 0–0
- Malenstyn – Danforth – McLeod3:36
xG 0.41–0.10 (81%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Quinn – Ostlund – Benson11:35
xG 0.44–0.20 (69%)attempts 12–4goals 0–0
- Thompson – Krebs – Kulich7:08
xG 0.27–0.20 (58%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDahlin – Power10:00
xG 0.69–0.10 (88%)attempts 15–5goals 0–0
- Samuelsson – Zellweger5:08
xG 0.63–0.15 (80%)attempts 11–2goals 0–0
- Power – Zellweger9:25
xG 0.31–0.14 (69%)attempts 9–4goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).