Thu, Oct 8, 2026·Lenovo Center, Raleigh
Vancouver Canucks 2, Carolina Hurricanes 7
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 92% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 03 | 111 | 16 | 220 |
| CAR | 37 | 311 | 116 | 734 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:18CARK'Andre MillerAssists: William Carrier, Sean Walker · Snap, 0.08 xG0–1
- P1 7:11CARAndrei SvechnikovPPAssists: Shayne Gostisbehere, Jackson Blake · Backhand, 0.14 xG0–2
- P1 9:25CARAndrei SvechnikovPPGWGAssists: Jackson Blake, Shayne Gostisbehere · Snap, 0.33 xG0–3
- P2 3:20CARMark JankowskiAssists: Jesperi Kotkaniemi · Snap, 0.16 xG0–4
- P2 4:03VANJake DeBruskAssists: Jonathan Lekkerimäki, Elias Pettersson · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–4
- P2 13:13CARLogan StankovenSHAssists: Sean Walker, Sebastian Aho · Snap, 0.31 xG1–5
- P2 19:02CARLogan StankovenPPAssists: Taylor Hall, Sean Walker · Snap, 0.14 xG1–6
- P3 11:36CARLogan StankovenAssists: Taylor Hall, Sean Walker · Snap, 0.12 xG1–7
- P3 13:04VANJake DeBruskAssists: Elias Pettersson, Zeev Buium · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–7
Penalties (7)
- P1 3:27CARK'Andre Miller: Holding2 min
- P1 5:52VANDrew O'Connor: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 9:20VANLinus Karlsson: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 19:08CARJesperi Kotkaniemi: Interference2 min
- P2 12:13CARJalen Chatfield: Interference2 min
- P2 17:16VANMax Sasson: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P3 1:06CARJalen Chatfield: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Pettersson won the faceoff against Staal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestBoeser – Cotter – Rossi6:46
xG 0.25–0.16 (61%)attempts 5–3goals 0–1
- DeBrusk – Pettersson – Lekkerimäki12:14
xG 0.46–0.80 (36%)attempts 7–9goals 2–0
- Karlsson – Cotter – Rossi4:55
xG 0.07–0.43 (13%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Boeser – O'Connor – Sasson5:13
xG 0.12–0.59 (17%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPettersson – Willander2:04
xG 0.14–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Hronek – Buium11:39
xG 0.33–0.41 (45%)attempts 3–8goals 1–0
- Oleksiak – Willander8:18
xG 0.04–0.36 (11%)attempts 2–6goals 0–1
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestHall – Stankoven – Blake10:38
xG 0.72–0.00 (100%)attempts 10–3goals 1–0
- Carrier – Aho – Svechnikov9:30
xG 0.74–0.17 (82%)attempts 8–4goals 1–0
- Jankowski – Robinson – Kotkaniemi9:39
xG 0.63–0.14 (82%)attempts 7–5goals 1–0
- Staal – Martinook – Ehlers7:14
xG 0.24–0.19 (56%)attempts 3–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestReilly – Gostisbehere12:09
xG 1.62–0.14 (92%)attempts 13–4goals 1–0
- Slavin – Chatfield13:12
xG 1.08–0.27 (80%)attempts 10–9goals 0–1
- Walker – Miller15:14
xG 0.72–0.58 (55%)attempts 12–9goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 92% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).