Sat, Oct 10, 2026·TD Garden, Boston
Philadelphia Flyers 1, Boston Bruins 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 84% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 03 | 05 | 17 | 115 |
| BOS | 112 | 110 | 310 | 532 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:21BOSPavel ZachaAssists: David Pastrnak · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–1
- P2 17:12BOSMason LohreiGWGAssists: JJ Peterka, Fraser Minten · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–2
- P3 1:55BOSMarat KhusnutdinovAssists: Fraser Minten, Will Borgen · Wrist, 0.17 xG0–3
- P3 6:32PHIPorter MartonePPAssists: David Jiricek, Denver Barkey · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–3
- P3 9:21BOSCasey MittelstadtAssists: Elias Lindholm, James Hagens · Wrist, 0.26 xG1–4
- P3 15:59BOSFraser MintenAssists: JJ Peterka, Hampus Lindholm · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–5
Penalties (9)
- P1 9:24BOSPavel Zacha: Tripping2 min
- P2 6:55PHINoel Acciari: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 18:55BOSConnor Clifton: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 19:12PHITyson Foerster: High sticking2 min
- P3 6:16BOSWill Borgen: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 18:44PHIPorter Martone: Interference2 min
- P3 18:44BOSFraser Minten: Roughing2 min
- P3 18:44BOSFraser Minten: Misconduct10 min
- P3 18:44PHIPorter Martone: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Couturier won the faceoff against Lindholm
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestCates – Barkey – Martone5:06
xG 0.18–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Cates – Zegras – Martone3:07
xG 0.10–0.05 (66%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Wilson – Bunting – Acciari8:34
xG 0.05–0.14 (25%)attempts 3–7goals 0–1
- Couturier – Tippett – Michkov10:06
xG 0.36–0.69 (34%)attempts 9–13goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Seeler – Grans2:48
xG 0.19–0.17 (53%)attempts 2–7goals 0–0
- Seeler – Drysdale2:00
xG 0.00–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Sanheim – Grans2:18
xG 0.00–0.10 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestLindholm – Mittelstadt – Hagens10:46
xG 1.26–0.11 (92%)attempts 17–5goals 1–0
- Peterka – Khusnutdinov – Minten9:16
xG 0.90–0.15 (86%)attempts 13–5goals 3–0
- Pastrnak – Zacha – Geekie13:27
xG 0.78–0.17 (82%)attempts 18–8goals 0–0
- Jeannot – Kastelic – Poitras10:01
xG 0.15–0.46 (25%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestClifton – Zadorov18:17
xG 1.18–0.30 (80%)attempts 27–10goals 0–0
- Lohrei – Brunet13:56
xG 1.03–0.40 (72%)attempts 16–9goals 2–0
- Lindholm – Borgen15:53
xG 0.85–0.28 (75%)attempts 15–9goals 3–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 84% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).