Sat, Oct 10, 2026·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
Utah Mammoth 4, Buffalo Sabres 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Utah Mammoth win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UTA | 112 | 28 | 110 | 430 |
| BUF | 17 | 04 | 013 | 124 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:00BUFTage ThompsonPPAssists: Rasmus Dahlin · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–1
- P1 10:12UTAKailer YamamotoAssists: Barrett Hayton, Mikhail Sergachev · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–1
- P2 15:23UTANick SchmaltzPPGWGAssists: Logan Cooley, Clayton Keller · Wrist, 0.15 xG2–1
- P2 17:24UTAAnders LeeAssists: John Marino, Kailer Yamamoto · Backhand, 0.15 xG3–1
- P3 1:45UTAJohn MarinoPPAssists: Barrett Hayton, Anders Lee · Slap, 0.06 xG4–1
Penalties (12)
- P1 1:32BUFTage Thompson: Slashing2 min
- P1 7:36UTALogan Cooley: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 5:14BUFJosh Doan: Hooking2 min
- P2 9:51UTAKarel Vejmelka: Misconduct10 min
- P2 14:20BUFOwen Power: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P2 19:27UTAMacKenzie Weegar: Fighting5 min
- P2 19:27BUFPeyton Krebs: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P3 0:32BUFOlen Zellweger: Holding2 min
- P3 6:07UTAVincent Trocheck: Cross checking2 min
- P3 9:19UTAAndrew Peeke: Holding2 min
- P3 10:05BUFJack Quinn: Hooking2 min
- P3 16:22UTAKevin Stenlund: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00McLeod won the faceoff against Trocheck
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Utah Mammoth
Forward lines
- bestLee – Yamamoto – Hayton7:33
xG 0.99–0.16 (86%)attempts 16–5goals 2–0
- Schmaltz – Crouse – Keller9:06
xG 0.47–0.16 (75%)attempts 11–3goals 0–0
- Trocheck – Guenther – Cooley10:19
xG 0.48–0.52 (48%)attempts 10–14goals 0–0
- Stenlund – McBain – But8:37
xG 0.22–0.33 (40%)attempts 4–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSchmidt – Marino11:05
xG 1.14–0.37 (75%)attempts 16–11goals 0–0
- Marino – Simashev2:35
xG 0.25–0.05 (84%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Weegar – Sergachev12:02
xG 0.44–0.49 (47%)attempts 11–15goals 0–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestDoan – Ostlund – Benson8:32
xG 0.41–0.32 (57%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
- Quinn – Ostlund – Benson2:01
xG 0.30–0.42 (42%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
- Danforth – McLeod – Krebs7:02
xG 0.39–0.54 (42%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Carrick – Malenstyn – Kozak6:17
xG 0.03–0.23 (11%)attempts 5–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestDahlin – Power5:46
xG 0.35–0.18 (65%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
- Dahlin – Zellweger3:33
xG 0.11–0.08 (59%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Crevier – Metsa4:46
xG 0.23–0.31 (43%)attempts 8–6goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it UTA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Utah Mammoth win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − UTA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).