Sat, Oct 10, 2026·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Nashville Predators 2, Ottawa Senators 3 (SO)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 27 | 04 | 04 | 03 | 1 | 218 |
| OTT | 04 | 19 | 15 | 02 | 2 | 320 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:50NSHRoss ColtonAssists: Vitali Pinchuk, Alexander Kerfoot · Snap, 0.17 xG1–0
- P1 13:10NSHJonathan MarchessaultPPAssists: Steven Stamkos, Roman Josi · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–0
- P2 9:29OTTTim StützlePPAssists: Dylan Cozens, Thomas Chabot · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–1
- P3 18:37OTTDrake BathersonAssists: Shane Pinto, Tim Stützle · Deflected, 0.18 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. OTT Drake Batherson stopped
- 2. NSH Ryan O'Reilly scored
- 3. OTT Tim Stützle scored
- 4. NSH Filip Forsberg stopped
- 5. OTT Shane Pinto scored
- 6. NSH Steven Stamkos stopped
Penalties (12)
- P1 2:47OTTAndre Burakovsky: Hooking2 min
- P1 12:57OTTMichael Amadio: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P1 15:45NSHAdam Wilsby: Cross checking2 min
- P1 18:34OTTFabian Zetterlund: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 9:23NSHBrady Skjei: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 10:57OTTHoyt Stanley: High sticking2 min
- P2 11:56NSHRyan O'Reilly: Tripping2 min
- P2 13:02NSHFilip Forsberg: Roughing2 min
- P3 9:12NSHNils Hoglander: Tripping2 min
- P3 9:18OTTThomas Chabot: Interference2 min
- P3 11:26OTTFabian Zetterlund: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 19:47NSHRoman Josi: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Wood won the faceoff against Stützle
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestForsberg – Hoglander – Wood8:21
xG 0.40–0.15 (73%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Drury – Edstrom – Schaefer5:52
xG 0.17–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Kerfoot – Colton – Pinchuk5:54
xG 0.18–0.25 (42%)attempts 7–9goals 1–0
- Stamkos – O'Reilly – Marchessault8:54
xG 0.01–0.46 (2%)attempts 4–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStruble – Wilsby15:19
xG 0.51–0.20 (72%)attempts 11–11goals 1–0
- Skjei – Perbix11:14
xG 0.24–0.43 (36%)attempts 12–11goals 0–0
- Josi – Hague12:50
xG 0.18–0.42 (30%)attempts 8–14goals 0–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestGiroux – Amadio – Pinto7:09
xG 0.20–0.06 (77%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
- Zetterlund – Cozens – Greig3:48
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Burakovsky – Batherson – Stützle7:35
xG 0.19–0.15 (57%)attempts 3–9goals 0–0
- Cousins – Cozens – Greig5:00
xG 0.21–0.38 (35%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestChabot – Spence17:04
xG 0.77–0.42 (65%)attempts 23–12goals 0–0
- Matinpalo – Stanley7:30
xG 0.10–0.01 (87%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Kleven – Yakemchuk12:33
xG 0.18–0.46 (28%)attempts 9–11goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).