Sun, Oct 11, 2026·Capital One Arena, Washington
Seattle Kraken 5, Washington Capitals 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Seattle Kraken win this game 74% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | 211 | 111 | 25 | 527 |
| WSH | 28 | 010 | 118 | 336 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:06SEAKaapo KakkoAssists: Vince Dunn, Adam Larsson · Snap, 0.18 xG1–0
- P1 11:41WSHJordan KyrouAssists: Cole Hutson, Ryan Leonard · Snap, 0.08 xG1–1
- P1 16:47WSHAlex OvechkinAssists: Ilya Protas, Aliaksei Protas · Snap, 0.21 xG1–2
- P1 19:49SEAJordan EberleAssists: Chandler Stephenson, Bobby McMann · Snap, 0.26 xG2–2
- P2 13:24SEAFrederick GaudreauAssists: Ryan Winterton, Ben Meyers · Backhand, 0.17 xG3–2
- P3 0:46WSHBoone JennerUnassisted · Snap, 0.18 xG3–3
- P3 14:33SEAJared McCannGWGAssists: Brandon Montour, Ryker Evans · Snap, 0.16 xG4–3
- P3 17:20SEARyan WintertonAssists: Ben Meyers, Frederick Gaudreau · Snap, 0.18 xG5–3
Penalties (4)
- P1 1:00SEARyker Evans: Holding2 min
- P1 2:48SEAChandler Stephenson: Tripping2 min
- P1 13:21WSHDylan McIlrath: Interference2 min
- P3 2:58WSHDylan Strome: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Beniers won the faceoff against Sourdif
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Seattle Kraken
Forward lines
- bestKakko – Wright – Catton9:31
xG 0.52–0.17 (76%)attempts 9–6goals 1–1
- Eberle – Stephenson – McMann13:42
xG 1.06–0.72 (59%)attempts 13–13goals 1–2
- McCann – Beniers – Samoskevich9:48
xG 0.77–0.66 (54%)attempts 11–12goals 1–0
- Gaudreau – Winterton – Meyers8:21
xG 0.37–0.39 (49%)attempts 5–8goals 2–0
Defence pairs
- bestMahura – Ottavainen8:36
xG 0.63–0.17 (79%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Larsson – Dunn17:45
xG 1.62–1.23 (57%)attempts 17–23goals 3–0
- Montour – Evans16:02
xG 0.35–1.04 (25%)attempts 13–13goals 1–3
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestWilson – Tuch – Strome6:16
xG 0.55–0.07 (89%)attempts 10–2goals 0–0
- Strome – Kyrou – Leonard7:21
xG 0.63–0.15 (81%)attempts 9–6goals 1–0
- Jenner – Kyrou – Leonard2:38
xG 0.64–0.18 (78%)attempts 6–3goals 1–1
- Beauvillier – Sourdif – Frank2:16
xG 0.17–0.04 (83%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFehérváry – Hutson5:39
xG 0.47–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–2goals 1–0
- Desharnais – Fehérváry9:04
xG 0.31–0.06 (85%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
- Chychrun – Desharnais4:32
xG 0.27–0.03 (90%)attempts 5–2goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it SEA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Seattle Kraken win this game 74% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − SEA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).