Tue, Oct 6, 2009·Wachovia Center, Philadelphia
Washington Capitals 5, Philadelphia Flyers 6 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 014 | 39 | 212 | 01 | 536 |
| PHI | 011 | 415 | 111 | 14 | 641 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 1:37PHIMike RichardsPPAssists: Matt Carle, Chris Pronger · Snap, 0.04 xG0–1
- P2 2:44WSHAlex OvechkinAssists: Matt Bradley, Nicklas Backstrom · Snap, 0.12 xG1–1
- P2 4:33PHIKimmo TimonenAssists: Matt Carle, Simon Gagne · Snap, 0.04 xG1–2
- P2 7:33WSHAlex OvechkinAssists: Nicklas Backstrom · Backhand, 0.12 xG2–2
- P2 12:26WSHAlexander SeminAssists: Mike Green, Shaone Morrisonn · Wrist, 0.15 xG3–2
- P2 13:49PHIMike RichardsPPAssists: Matt Carle · Snap, 0.05 xG3–3
- P2 14:07PHIMike RichardsAssists: Matt Carle · Wrist, 0.32 xG3–4
- P3 8:18WSHAlexander SeminPPAssists: Nicklas Backstrom, Alex Ovechkin · Snap, 0.11 xG4–4
- P3 9:32WSHBrendan MorrisonAssists: Matt Bradley, Brooks Laich · Tip-in, 0.47 xG5–4
- P3 15:45PHIScott HartnellPPAssists: Braydon Coburn, Kimmo Timonen · Backhand, 0.43 xG5–5
- OT 3:52PHIDaniel BrièreGWGAssists: Kimmo Timonen, Jeff Carter · Wrist, 0.47 xG5–6
Penalties (17)
- P1 3:46PHIDarroll Powe: Tripping2 min
- P1 7:43PHIIan Laperriere: Fighting5 min
- P1 7:43WSHMatt Bradley: Fighting5 min
- P1 10:34PHIDarroll Powe: Interference2 min
- P1 13:45WSHChris Clark: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P1 18:06PHIDaniel Brière: High sticking2 min
- P2 0:46WSHMike Green: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P2 2:53WSHAlexander Semin: Hooking2 min
- P2 3:17PHIChris Pronger: Hooking2 min
- P2 4:33WSHJohn Erskine: High sticking2 min
- P2 9:20WSHMilan Jurcina: Holding2 min
- P2 13:38WSHBrooks Laich: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 16:44WSHJohn Erskine: Holding2 min
- P3 3:28WSHBoyd Kane: Hooking2 min
- P3 6:58PHIJeff Carter: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 14:06WSHBoyd Gordon: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 19:06PHIKimmo Timonen: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Carter won the faceoff against Morrison
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).