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Ice Lab

Sat, Oct 17, 2009·Mellon Arena, Pittsburgh

Tampa Bay Lightning 1, Pittsburgh Penguins 4

Away

Tampa Bay Lightning

1

Final

Home

Pittsburgh Penguins

4

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 85% of the time.

PIT winsTBL wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
TBL0617010123
PIT21111319433

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 4:57PITBill GuerinPPAssists: Evgeni Malkin, Alex Goligoski · Wrist, 0.37 xG0–1
  2. P1 17:10PITSergei GoncharGWGAssists: Brooks Orpik, Sidney Crosby · Slap, 0.03 xG0–2
  3. P2 6:18TBLSteven StamkosPPAssists: Martin St. Louis, Vincent Lecavalier · Wrist, 0.25 xG1–2
  4. P2 8:15PITPascal DupuisAssists: Sergei Gonchar, Ruslan Fedotenko · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–3
  5. P3 11:21PITMike RuppAssists: Sidney Crosby · Snap, 0.09 xG1–4
Penalties (14)
  1. P1 3:40TBLDrew Miller: High sticking2 min · PPG
  2. P1 5:40PITAlex Goligoski: Tripping2 min
  3. P2 0:50PITSidney Crosby: Holding the stick2 min
  4. P2 5:30PITPascal Dupuis: Slashing2 min · PPG
  5. P2 12:01PITEvgeni Malkin: Hooking2 min
  6. P2 14:33TBLJeff Halpern: Holding the stick2 min
  7. P2 17:44TBLZenon Konopka: Slashing2 min
  8. P2 17:54TBLMatt Walker: Slashing2 min
  9. P2 18:41TBLPaul Ranger: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
  10. P3 5:30TBLJames Wright: Hooking2 min
  11. P3 7:18TBLVictor Hedman: Holding2 min
  12. P3 12:00PITRuslan Fedotenko: Slashing2 min
  13. P3 14:19PITBill Guerin: Too many men on the ice2 min
  14. P3 17:33PITMark Eaton: Tripping2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

TBL00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0PIT
43% to win57% to win
← TBL attackPIT attack →
  1. P1 20:00Lecavalier won the faceoff against Staal
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

TBLPIT
23Shots on goal33
1.5Expected goals3.6
50Shot attempts59
36Faceoffs won25
7Power plays7
14Penalty minutes14
22Hits24
11Blocked shots19
7Giveaways5
3Takeaways4

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

PIT 3.6 xGTBL 1.5 xG
01234P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

PITTBL

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.

Excitement 25/100 · #916 of 1230 this seasonSwing 0.80 · 5 goals in reachComeback index 56% (winner's lowest chance)
TBL 100%5050%50PIT 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +14 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 85% of the time.

PIT winsTBL wins

Simulated goal difference (PIT − TBL), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).