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Ice Lab

Fri, Nov 6, 2009·RBC Center, Raleigh

Toronto Maple Leafs 3, Carolina Hurricanes 2

Away

Toronto Maple Leafs

3

Final

Home

Carolina Hurricanes

2

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 65% of the time.

CAR winsTOR wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
TOR0821018326
CAR28010018236

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 7:51CARBrandon SutterAssists: Rod Brind'Amour, Joe Corvo · Backhand, 0.14 xG0–1
  2. P1 17:22CARSergei SamsonovAssists: Andrew Alberts, Jussi Jokinen · Wrist, 0.39 xG0–2
  3. P2 1:12TORJohn MitchellAssists: Tomas Kaberle, Jason Blake · Slap, 0.02 xG1–2
  4. P2 7:23TORNikolay KuleminAssists: Alexei Ponikarovsky, Mikhail Grabovski · Tip-in, 0.14 xG2–2
  5. P3 11:36TORJason BlakePPGWGAssists: Lee Stempniak, Phil Kessel · Snap, 0.33 xG3–2
Penalties (5)
  1. P1 5:14TORMatt Stajan: Holding2 min
  2. P1 18:02TORLuke Schenn: Interference2 min
  3. P2 15:37CARAndrew Alberts: Interference2 min
  4. P3 10:52CARRod Brind'Amour: Holding2 min · PPG
  5. P3 19:37TORFrancois Beauchemin: Tripping2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

TOR00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0CAR
43% to win57% to win
← TOR attackCAR attack →
  1. P1 20:00Cullen won the faceoff against Grabovski
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

TORCAR
26Shots on goal36
2.8Expected goals3.7
47Shot attempts69
22Faceoffs won33
2Power plays3
6Penalty minutes4
19Hits29
23Blocked shots14
5Giveaways3
4Takeaways6

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

CAR 3.7 xGTOR 2.8 xG
01234P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

CARTOR

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.

Excitement 61/100 · #472 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.30 · 5 goals in reach · 2-goal lead cutComeback index 15% (winner's lowest chance)
TOR 100%5050%50CAR 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +30 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 65% of the time.

CAR winsTOR wins

Simulated goal difference (CAR − TOR), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).