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Ice Lab

Thu, Nov 19, 2009·Pengrowth Saddledome, Calgary

Chicago Blackhawks 7, Calgary Flames 1

Away

Chicago Blackhawks

7

Final

Home

Calgary Flames

1

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 83% of the time.

CGY winsCHI wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
CHI11051412726
CGY0101909128

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 9:15CHITroy BrouwerPPAssists: Duncan Keith, Brian Campbell · Slap, 0.49 xG1–0
  2. P2 0:14CGYOlli JokinenPPAssists: Jarome Iginla, Jay Bouwmeester · Snap, 0.11 xG1–1
  3. P2 2:01CHIKris VersteegPPGWGAssists: Brent Seabrook, Cam Barker · Tip-in, 0.07 xG2–1
  4. P2 8:01CHIDustin ByfuglienAssists: Patrick Sharp · Snap, 0.03 xG3–1
  5. P2 12:51CHIAndrew LaddAssists: Duncan Keith, Brian Campbell · Wrist, 0.03 xG4–1
  6. P2 18:46CHIPatrick KanePPAssists: Patrick Sharp, Cam Barker · Wrist, 0.15 xG5–1
  7. P2 19:22CHIKris VersteegPPAssists: Patrick Kane, Duncan Keith · Slap, 0.17 xG6–1
  8. P3 15:26CHIBen EagerAssists: Tomas Kopecky, Niklas Hjalmarsson · Snap, 0.56 xG7–1
Penalties (14)
  1. P1 4:33CHIBrent Seabrook: Interference2 min
  2. P1 8:43CGYAdam Pardy: Elbowing2 min · PPG
  3. P1 14:42CHIDuncan Keith: Holding2 min
  4. P1 16:25CGYRene Bourque: Holding2 min
  5. P1 19:38CHIBrent Sopel: Roughing2 min · PPG
  6. P2 0:52CGYNigel Dawes: Roughing2 min · PPG
  7. P2 4:35CHIColin Fraser: Elbowing2 min
  8. P2 4:35CHIColin Fraser: Fighting5 min
  9. P2 4:35CGYEric Nystrom: Fighting5 min
  10. P2 17:02CGYNigel Dawes: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
  11. P2 18:25CGYDion Phaneuf: Roughing2 min · PPG
  12. P2 18:25CHIBrent Seabrook: Fighting5 min
  13. P2 18:25CGYDion Phaneuf: Fighting5 min
  14. P3 9:00CHIBen Eager: Hooking2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

CHI00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0CGY
43% to win57% to win
← CHI attackCGY attack →
  1. P1 20:00Boyd won the faceoff against Madden
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

CHICGY
26Shots on goal28
3.5Expected goals1.6
45Shot attempts54
29Faceoffs won26
5Power plays5
20Penalty minutes20
12Hits16
18Blocked shots9
9Giveaways12
12Takeaways12

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

CGY 1.6 xGCHI 3.5 xG
01234P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

CGYCHI

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.

Excitement 32/100 · #843 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.09 · 5 goals in reachComeback index 43% (winner's lowest chance)
CHI 100%5050%50CGY 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +19 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 83% of the time.

CGY winsCHI wins

Simulated goal difference (CGY − CHI), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).