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Ice Lab

Wed, Feb 3, 2010·Pengrowth Saddledome, Calgary

Carolina Hurricanes 1, Calgary Flames 4

Away

Carolina Hurricanes

1

Final

Home

Calgary Flames

4

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 79% of the time.

CGY winsCAR wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
CAR0611309128
CGY111215113439

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 2:54CGYCurtis GlencrossAssists: Eric Nystrom, Jamal Mayers · Deflected, 0.11 xG0–1
  2. P2 7:19CAREric StaalPPAssists: Jussi Jokinen, Matt Cullen · Deflected, 0.13 xG1–1
  3. P2 16:43CGYMatt StajanGWGAssists: Jarome Iginla, Robyn Regehr · Wrist, 0.20 xG1–2
  4. P2 17:35CGYCurtis GlencrossAssists: Jay Bouwmeester, Adam Pardy · Slap, 0.04 xG1–3
  5. P3 18:58CGYCurtis GlencrossENAssists: Rene Bourque · Wrist, 0.71 xG1–4
Penalties (15)
  1. P1 3:35CARRod Brind'Amour: Interference2 min
  2. P1 8:09CGYAles Kotalik: Interference2 min
  3. P1 14:54CARJoni Pitkanen: Tripping2 min
  4. P1 17:13CGYJamal Mayers: Instigator2 min
  5. P1 17:13CARTom Kostopoulos: Fighting5 min
  6. P1 17:13CGYJamal Mayers: Fighting5 min
  7. P1 17:13CGYJamal Mayers: Misconduct10 min
  8. P1 18:38CGYCory Sarich: High sticking double minor4 min
  9. P2 4:38CGYCory Sarich: Cross checking2 min
  10. P2 6:56CGYIan White: Tripping2 min · PPG
  11. P2 7:58CARJiri Tlusty: Hooking2 min
  12. P2 12:41CGYAdam Pardy: Hooking2 min
  13. P2 16:12CGYMark Giordano: Tripping2 min
  14. P2 16:20CARMatt Cullen: Tripping2 min
  15. P2 19:02CGYCory Sarich: Interference2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

CAR00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0CGY
43% to win57% to win
← CAR attackCGY attack →
  1. P1 20:00Backlund won the faceoff against Sutter
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

CARCGY
28Shots on goal39
2.2Expected goals4.1
52Shot attempts62
32Faceoffs won32
9Power plays4
13Penalty minutes33
20Hits19
11Blocked shots11
11Giveaways7
5Takeaways10

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

CGY 4.1 xGCAR 2.2 xG
01234P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

CGYCAR

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.

Excitement 33/100 · #830 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.11 · 5 goals in reachComeback index 52% (winner's lowest chance)
CAR 100%5050%50CGY 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +23 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 79% of the time.

CGY winsCAR wins

Simulated goal difference (CGY − CAR), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).