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Ice Lab

Thu, Mar 18, 2010·St. Pete Times Forum, Tampa

Buffalo Sabres 6, Tampa Bay Lightning 2

Away

Buffalo Sabres

6

Final

Home

Tampa Bay Lightning

2

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 70% of the time.

TBL winsBUF wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
BUF3141925628
TBL0401229225

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 5:19BUFJason PominvillePPAssists: Derek Roy, Toni Lydman · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–0
  2. P1 13:56BUFTyler MyersAssists: Jochen Hecht · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–0
  3. P1 16:23BUFJason PominvilleGWGAssists: Henrik Tallinder · Wrist, 0.17 xG3–0
  4. P2 9:25BUFDerek RoySHUnassisted · Wrist, 0.14 xG4–0
  5. P3 8:06TBLSteve DownieAssists: Steven Stamkos, Martin St. Louis · Wrist, 0.11 xG4–1
  6. P3 17:22TBLVincent LecavalierPPAssists: Steven Stamkos, Teddy Purcell · Slap, 0.04 xG4–2
  7. P3 18:14BUFThomas VanekENAssists: Derek Roy · Wrist, 0.65 xG5–2
  8. P3 19:26BUFJason PominvilleAssists: Tim Connolly, Toni Lydman · Wrist, 0.12 xG6–2
Penalties (15)
  1. P1 2:07BUFCraig Rivet: Instigator2 min
  2. P1 2:07TBLTodd Fedoruk: Fighting5 min · PPG
  3. P1 2:07BUFCraig Rivet: Fighting5 min
  4. P1 2:07BUFCraig Rivet: Misconduct10 min
  5. P1 4:48TBLMatt Walker: Interference2 min
  6. P1 9:22BUFPatrick Kaleta: Roughing2 min
  7. P1 11:48TBLTodd Fedoruk: Interference2 min
  8. P1 12:28BUFJason Pominville: Slashing2 min
  9. P1 12:49TBLAndrej Meszaros: Hooking2 min
  10. P2 3:14TBLSteven Stamkos: Tripping2 min
  11. P2 8:51BUFTyler Myers: Interference goalkeeper2 min
  12. P2 12:11TBLNate Thompson: Roughing2 min
  13. P2 15:33TBLTodd Fedoruk: Too many men on the ice2 min
  14. P3 2:26TBLVictor Hedman: Tripping2 min
  15. P3 16:37BUFTim Connolly: Slashing2 min · PPG

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

BUF00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0TBL
43% to win57% to win
← BUF attackTBL attack →
  1. P1 20:00Roy won the faceoff against Stamkos
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

BUFTBL
28Shots on goal25
3.3Expected goals2.2
49Shot attempts51
34Faceoffs won24
7Power plays4
25Penalty minutes19
12Hits8
15Blocked shots12
5Giveaways12
3Takeaways11

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

TBL 2.2 xGBUF 3.3 xG
01234P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

TBLBUF

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.

Excitement 62/100 · #458 of 1230 this seasonSwing 0.70 · 6 goals in reach · 2-goal lead cutComeback index 43% (winner's lowest chance)
BUF 100%5050%50TBL 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +15 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 70% of the time.

TBL winsBUF wins

Simulated goal difference (TBL − BUF), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).