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Ice Lab

Wed, Mar 24, 2010·HSBC Arena, Buffalo

Montréal Canadiens 2, Buffalo Sabres 3 (SO)

Away

Montréal Canadiens

2

Final

Shootout

Home

Buffalo Sabres

3

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 65% of the time.

BUF winsMTL wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3OTSOTotal
MTL1711208010228
BUF010014217012342

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 0:41MTLAndrei KostitsynAssists: Tomas Plekanec, Roman Hamrlik · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–0
  2. P2 4:57MTLAndrei KostitsynPPAssists: Andrei Markov, Marc-Andre Bergeron · Snap, 0.08 xG2–0
  3. P3 18:01BUFTim ConnollyPPAssists: Derek Roy, Tyler Myers · Slap, 0.17 xG2–1
  4. P3 19:12BUFPaul GaustadAssists: Steve Montador, Andrej Sekera · Wrist, 0.46 xG2–2

Shootout

  1. 1. BUF Jason Pominville scored
  2. 2. MTL Andrei Kostitsyn stopped
  3. 3. BUF Drew Stafford stopped
  4. 4. MTL Michael Cammalleri stopped
  5. 5. BUF Thomas Vanek scored
Penalties (10)
  1. P1 19:37BUFDerek Roy: Hooking2 min
  2. P2 2:31BUFAdam Mair: Cross checking2 min
  3. P2 4:43BUFThomas Vanek: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
  4. P2 5:35BUFJason Pominville: Slashing2 min
  5. P2 13:13MTLCarey Price: Delaying game illegal play by goalie2 min
  6. P2 16:56MTLBenoit Pouliot: High sticking2 min
  7. P2 16:56MTLBenoit Pouliot: High sticking2 min
  8. P3 13:19MTLSergei Kostitsyn: Hooking2 min
  9. P3 16:27MTLRyan O'Byrne: High sticking2 min · PPG
  10. OT 0:38MTLAndrei Markov: Interference2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

MTL00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0BUF
43% to win57% to win
← MTL attackBUF attack →
  1. P1 20:00Roy won the faceoff against Plekanec
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

MTLBUF
28Shots on goal42
2.4Expected goals3.3
44Shot attempts68
30Faceoffs won27
4Power plays6
12Penalty minutes8
17Hits10
18Blocked shots4
3Giveaways12
2Takeaways7

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

BUF 3.3 xGMTL 2.4 xG
0123P1P2P3OTEndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

BUFMTL

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.

Excitement 72/100 · #311 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.75 · 4 goals in reach · 2-goal lead cutComeback index 1% (winner's lowest chance)
MTL 100%5050%50BUF 100%P1P2P3OTEndBiggest swing +46 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 65% of the time.

BUF winsMTL wins

Simulated goal difference (BUF − MTL), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).