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Ice Lab

Fri, Mar 26, 2010·HSBC Arena, Buffalo

Ottawa Senators 4, Buffalo Sabres 2

Away

Ottawa Senators

4

Final

Home

Buffalo Sabres

2

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 70% of the time.

BUF winsOTT wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
OTT110211110431
BUF017114112243

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 6:42OTTChris KellyAssists: Jarkko Ruutu, Chris Neil · Backhand, 0.37 xG1–0
  2. P2 5:36OTTPeter ReginAssists: Jason Spezza, Matt Carkner · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–0
  3. P2 10:52BUFTim KennedyAssists: Paul Gaustad · Tip-in, 0.11 xG2–1
  4. P2 14:03OTTJason SpezzaPPGWGAssists: Daniel Alfredsson, Erik Karlsson · Tip-in, 0.10 xG3–1
  5. P3 1:34BUFJason PominvilleUnassisted · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–2
  6. P3 19:59OTTDaniel AlfredssonENAssists: Jarkko Ruutu, Chris Kelly · Wrist, 0.72 xG4–2
Penalties (9)
  1. P1 2:57OTTZack Smith: Fighting5 min
  2. P1 2:57BUFPatrick Kaleta: Fighting5 min
  3. P1 15:32OTTMike Fisher: Boarding5 min
  4. P1 15:32OTTMike Fisher: Misconduct10 min
  5. P1 16:41BUFTim Connolly: Slashing2 min
  6. P2 7:11OTTRyan Shannon: Interference2 min
  7. P2 13:40BUFToni Lydman: Tripping2 min · PPG
  8. P2 19:27BUFSteve Montador: Cross checking2 min
  9. P3 17:04OTTRyan Shannon: Too many men on the ice2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

OTT00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0BUF
43% to win57% to win
← OTT attackBUF attack →
  1. P1 20:00Gaustad won the faceoff against Spezza
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

OTTBUF
31Shots on goal43
2.8Expected goals4.0
45Shot attempts76
26Faceoffs won32
2Power plays4
24Penalty minutes11
21Hits21
16Blocked shots6
9Giveaways7
0Takeaways2

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

BUF 4.0 xGOTT 2.8 xG
01234P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

BUFOTT

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.

Excitement 46/100 · #663 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.33 · 6 goals in reachComeback index 43% (winner's lowest chance)
OTT 100%5050%50BUF 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +16 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 70% of the time.

BUF winsOTT wins

Simulated goal difference (BUF − OTT), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).