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Ice Lab

Tue, Mar 30, 2010·Joe Louis Arena, Detroit

Edmonton Oilers 4, Detroit Red Wings 5

Away

Edmonton Oilers

4

Final

Home

Detroit Red Wings

5

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 86% of the time.

DET winsEDM wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
EDM0728211426
DET31612018544

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 6:38DETAndreas LiljaAssists: Valtteri Filppula, Henrik Zetterberg · Deflected, 0.09 xG0–1
  2. P1 14:22DETNiklas KronwallAssists: Johan Franzen, Tomas Holmstrom · Slap, 0.10 xG0–2
  3. P1 19:32DETDrew MillerAssists: Jason Williams, Kris Draper · Snap, 0.10 xG0–3
  4. P2 16:31DETJohan FranzenPPAssists: Tomas Holmstrom, Pavel Datsyuk · Snap, 0.13 xG0–4
  5. P2 17:02EDMTom GilbertPPAssists: Mike Comrie, Andrew Cogliano · Slap, 0.06 xG1–4
  6. P2 17:58EDMMike ComrieAssists: Marc-Antoine Pouliot, Aaron Johnson · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–4
  7. P3 3:03EDMZack StortiniAssists: Jason Strudwick, Shawn Horcoff · Wrap-around, 0.00 xG3–4
  8. P3 10:30EDMTom GilbertAssists: Andrew Cogliano · Snap, 0.06 xG4–4
  9. P3 18:53DETBrad StuartGWGAssists: Pavel Datsyuk · Tip-in, 0.08 xG4–5
Penalties (7)
  1. P2 2:03DETBrad Stuart: Cross checking2 min
  2. P2 7:27EDMAndrew Cogliano: High sticking2 min
  3. P2 10:16EDMMarc-Antoine Pouliot: Hooking2 min
  4. P2 15:12EDMAndrew Cogliano: Roughing2 min · PPG
  5. P2 16:58DETValtteri Filppula: Interference2 min · PPG
  6. P3 5:59DETTomas Holmstrom: Tripping2 min
  7. P3 19:50DETNicklas Lidstrom: Tripping2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

EDM00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0DET
43% to win57% to win
← EDM attackDET attack →
  1. P1 20:00Horcoff won the faceoff against Datsyuk
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

EDMDET
26Shots on goal44
1.4Expected goals3.7
41Shot attempts86
24Faceoffs won33
4Power plays3
6Penalty minutes8
28Hits23
15Blocked shots9
9Giveaways10
2Takeaways6

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

DET 3.7 xGEDM 1.4 xG
01234P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

DETEDM

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.

Excitement 90/100 · #97 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.60 · 8 goals in reach · 4-goal lead cutComeback index 51% (winner's lowest chance)
EDM 100%5050%50DET 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +44 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 86% of the time.

DET winsEDM wins

Simulated goal difference (DET − EDM), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).