Fri, Oct 8, 2010·Scotiabank Place, Ottawa
Buffalo Sabres 2, Ottawa Senators 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 82% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 113 | 016 | 17 | 236 |
| OTT | 09 | 13 | 014 | 126 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:04BUFDerek RoyAssists: Tyler Ennis, Shaone Morrisonn · Backhand, 0.13 xG1–0
- P2 19:11OTTChris KellyAssists: Jarkko Ruutu, Chris Neil · Snap, 0.17 xG1–1
- P3 10:12BUFDerek RoyPPGWGAssists: Tyler Ennis, Tyler Myers · Tip-in, 0.17 xG2–1
Penalties (12)
- P1 3:23OTTNick Foligno: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 12:34OTTMilan Michalek: Tripping2 min
- P1 15:54BUFJordan Leopold: Tripping2 min
- P2 5:12OTTMike Fisher: Cross checking2 min
- P2 7:40OTTBrian Lee: Interference2 min
- P3 2:14BUFSteve Montador: Slashing2 min
- P3 9:41OTTChris Campoli: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P3 11:43BUFCraig Rivet: Interference2 min
- P3 14:18OTTChris Neil: Roughing2 min
- P3 14:18BUFDerek Roy: Roughing2 min
- P3 17:10BUFDrew Stafford: Elbowing2 min
- P3 19:39BUFMike Grier: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Regin won the faceoff against Roy
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestConnolly – Pominville – Vanek6:07
xG 0.63–0.22 (74%)attempts 9–5goals 0–1
- Roy – Stafford – Ennis10:49
xG 0.47–0.19 (71%)attempts 8–8goals 1–0
- Niedermayer – Grier – Hecht8:50
xG 0.51–0.46 (53%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
- Gaustad – McCormick – Kaleta7:51
xG 0.05–0.04 (50%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLeopold – Montador12:01
xG 1.10–0.44 (71%)attempts 18–9goals 0–1
- Rivet – Sekera10:46
xG 0.46–0.26 (63%)attempts 9–11goals 1–0
- Morrisonn – Myers12:39
xG 0.18–0.22 (45%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestKovalev – Michalek – Regin8:10
xG 0.13–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Alfredsson – Michalek – Regin2:58
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Shannon – Smith – Winchester2:46
xG 0.06–0.02 (78%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Alfredsson – Fisher – Foligno6:02
xG 0.12–0.09 (58%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGonchar – Karlsson3:01
xG 0.26–0.14 (66%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Gonchar – Campoli11:32
xG 0.26–0.25 (50%)attempts 8–6goals 1–0
- Carkner – Lee8:29
xG 0.18–0.42 (30%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 82% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).