Sat, Oct 9, 2010·Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum, Uniondale
Dallas Stars 5, New York Islanders 4 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 82% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 26 | 110 | 15 | 01 | 1 | 522 |
| NYI | 013 | 210 | 223 | 01 | 0 | 447 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:52DALJamie BennPPAssists: Brad Richards, Steve Ott · Wrist, 0.53 xG1–0
- P1 11:59DALStephane RobidasPPAssists: Brad Richards, Trevor Daley · Slap, 0.04 xG2–0
- P2 6:21NYIJames WisniewskiPPAssists: Doug Weight, PA Parenteau · Slap, 0.02 xG2–1
- P2 13:45DALBrenden MorrowAssists: Mike Ribeiro, Nicklas Grossmann · Snap, 0.13 xG3–1
- P2 15:24NYIDoug WeightPPAssists: PA Parenteau, James Wisniewski · Wrist, 0.17 xG3–2
- P3 7:12DALBrenden MorrowAssists: Mike Ribeiro · Tip-in, 0.12 xG4–2
- P3 8:45NYIBlake ComeauAssists: Radek Martinek, Josh Bailey · Slap, 0.03 xG4–3
- P3 17:21NYIMatt MoulsonPPAssists: Frans Nielsen, Doug Weight · Backhand, 0.42 xG4–4
Shootout
- 1. NYI Frans Nielsen stopped
- 2. DAL Brad Richards stopped
- 3. NYI PA Parenteau stopped
- 4. DAL James Neal stopped
- 5. NYI Matt Moulson stopped
- 6. DAL Mike Ribeiro scored
Penalties (15)
- P1 1:53DALSteve Ott: Hooking2 min
- P1 3:44DALJames Neal: Tripping2 min
- P1 8:49NYIBlake Comeau: Boarding2 min · PPG
- P1 16:59NYIMark Eaton: Interference2 min
- P2 3:51NYINino Niederreiter: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 6:15DALToby Petersen: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 10:46NYIDoug Weight: High sticking2 min
- P2 14:06DALNicklas Grossmann: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 14:31DALSteve Ott: Tripping2 min
- P2 19:40NYIJames Wisniewski: Slashing2 min
- P3 10:47NYIJon Sim: Roughing2 min
- P3 10:56DALBrad Richards: Holding2 min
- P3 16:17DALStephane Robidas: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P3 17:53DALStephane Robidas: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- OT 0:29NYIBlake Comeau: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Konopka won the faceoff against Richards
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- Petersen – Sutherby – Wandell3:22
xG 0.07–0.14 (33%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Richards – Eriksson – Neal12:12
xG 0.39–0.61 (39%)attempts 12–11goals 0–0
- Morrow – Ribeiro – Burish9:12
xG 0.33–0.59 (36%)attempts 5–10goals 1–0
- Barch – Ott – Benn4:28
xG 0.00–0.36 (0%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Skrastins – Niskanen9:48
xG 0.25–0.33 (43%)attempts 8–7goals 1–0
- Daley – Fistric10:49
xG 0.49–0.63 (44%)attempts 12–16goals 0–1
- Robidas – Grossmann12:39
xG 0.21–1.28 (14%)attempts 5–17goals 1–0
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestHunter – Nielsen – Moulson7:13
xG 0.63–0.02 (96%)attempts 10–3goals 0–0
- Weight – Parenteau – Niederreiter3:29
xG 0.53–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Weight – Bailey – Niederreiter2:03
xG 0.28–0.08 (77%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Parenteau – Comeau – Tavares2:34
xG 0.23–0.17 (58%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEaton – Martinek10:36
xG 0.83–0.14 (86%)attempts 13–5goals 1–0
- Jurcina – MacDonald10:02
xG 0.68–0.20 (77%)attempts 16–9goals 0–1
- Mottau – Wisniewski12:57
xG 0.68–0.48 (59%)attempts 8–10goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 82% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).