Tue, Oct 19, 2010·HP Pavilion at San Jose, San Jose
Carolina Hurricanes 5, San Jose Sharks 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 210 | 19 | 212 | 531 |
| SJS | 09 | 219 | 015 | 243 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:56CAREric StaalSHAssists: Chad LaRose, Anton Babchuk · Snap, 0.11 xG1–0
- P1 17:35CARErik ColeAssists: Tim Gleason, Jeff Skinner · Wrist, 0.25 xG2–0
- P2 2:43CARPatrick DwyerGWGAssists: Jussi Jokinen, Chad LaRose · Snap, 0.15 xG3–0
- P2 6:34SJSPatrick MarleauAssists: Dan Boyle, Joe Thornton · Tip-in, 0.04 xG3–1
- P2 9:46SJSPatrick MarleauPPAssists: Devin Setoguchi, Douglas Murray · Snap, 0.12 xG3–2
- P3 2:11CARChad LaRoseAssists: Eric Staal · Snap, 0.28 xG4–2
- P3 7:05CARJoni PitkanenAssists: Tom Kostopoulos, Jamie McBain · Slap, 0.00 xG5–2
Penalties (11)
- P1 1:43CARTuomo Ruutu: Slashing2 min
- P1 5:46CARPatrick O'Sullivan: Tripping2 min
- P1 6:34SJSDan Boyle: Interference2 min
- P1 9:47CARJay Harrison: Holding2 min
- P2 8:03CARJoe Corvo: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 9:55SJSScott Nichol: Boarding2 min
- P2 16:37SJSJamie McGinn: Boarding2 min
- P3 2:02SJSJamie McGinn: Roughing2 min
- P3 2:02CARErik Cole: Roughing2 min
- P3 11:59SJSPatrick Marleau: Hooking2 min
- P3 14:19CARAnton Babchuk: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Thornton won the faceoff against Staal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestCole – Ruutu – Skinner10:03
xG 1.28–0.17 (88%)attempts 16–12goals 1–0
- Kostopoulos – O'Sullivan – Sutter7:18
xG 0.45–0.36 (56%)attempts 7–12goals 1–0
- Kostopoulos – LaRose – Sutter2:03
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Dwyer – Bowman – Dalpe5:35
xG 0.00–0.34 (0%)attempts 2–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHarrison – Babchuk3:32
xG 0.81–0.11 (88%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Corvo – Gleason11:19
xG 0.86–0.35 (71%)attempts 11–11goals 1–0
- Pitkanen – McBain5:07
xG 0.32–0.10 (76%)attempts 6–1goals 1–0
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestThornton – Marleau – Setoguchi9:17
xG 0.60–0.50 (55%)attempts 7–10goals 1–1
- Nichol – Clowe – McCarthy2:00
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–1goals 0–0
- Heatley – Clowe – Couture9:06
xG 0.27–0.53 (34%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
- Pavelski – Mitchell – McGinn6:31
xG 0.34–1.11 (24%)attempts 12–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHuskins – Moore3:03
xG 0.42–0.05 (90%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Vlasic – Demers2:14
xG 0.06–0.23 (20%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Wallin – Moore3:06
xG 0.08–0.33 (20%)attempts 5–4goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).