Thu, Oct 21, 2010·St. Pete Times Forum, Tampa
New York Islanders 3, Tampa Bay Lightning 2 (OT)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 111 | 18 | 04 | 12 | 325 |
| TBL | 110 | 18 | 012 | 00 | 230 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:15NYIMichael GrabnerAssists: Nino Niederreiter, Doug Weight · Wrist, 0.24 xG1–0
- P1 18:05TBLSean BergenheimAssists: Teddy Purcell, Victor Hedman · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–1
- P2 4:44TBLMartin St. LouisAssists: Steven Stamkos, Mike Lundin · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–2
- P2 10:00NYIPA ParenteauPPAssists: James Wisniewski, John Tavares · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–2
- OT 1:56NYIMatt MoulsonGWGAssists: Frans Nielsen, Mike Mottau · Wrist, 0.26 xG3–2
Penalties (9)
- P1 11:23NYIMike Mottau: Holding2 min
- P2 2:40TBLSean Bergenheim: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 8:24TBLRyan Malone: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P2 9:46TBLSteven Stamkos: Cross checking2 min
- P2 13:38NYIJon Sim: Roughing2 min
- P2 13:38NYITrevor Gillies: Cross checking2 min
- P2 16:55TBLVincent Lecavalier: Tripping2 min
- P3 8:33NYIZenon Konopka: Boarding2 min
- P3 19:52TBLPavel Kubina: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Konopka won the faceoff against Thompson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestSim – Konopka – Grabner2:46
xG 0.31–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Weight – Grabner – Niederreiter6:39
xG 0.40–0.21 (66%)attempts 6–4goals 1–0
- Sim – Parenteau – Nielsen2:30
xG 0.14–0.03 (83%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Hunter – Parenteau – Nielsen2:50
xG 0.00–0.18 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMottau – Wisniewski12:47
xG 0.74–0.31 (70%)attempts 15–10goals 1–1
- Mottau – Jurcina3:56
xG 0.43–0.19 (70%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Eaton – Jurcina3:09
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestSt. Louis – Downie – Stamkos13:32
xG 0.57–0.15 (79%)attempts 16–6goals 0–0
- Hall – Thompson – Tyrell6:40
xG 0.31–0.05 (86%)attempts 9–2goals 0–0
- Moore – Bergenheim – Purcell3:10
xG 0.14–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 1–0
- Lecavalier – Gagne – Bergenheim2:28
xG 0.00–0.11 (0%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKubina – Lundin13:56
xG 0.62–0.34 (65%)attempts 13–7goals 1–0
- Clark – Hedman14:36
xG 0.39–0.16 (71%)attempts 17–9goals 1–0
- Smaby – Jones10:57
xG 0.25–0.92 (21%)attempts 8–15goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).