Sun, Oct 24, 2010·St. Pete Times Forum, Tampa
Nashville Predators 4, Tampa Bay Lightning 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 210 | 110 | 16 | 426 |
| TBL | 113 | 016 | 216 | 345 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:30TBLSean BergenheimAssists: Pavel Kubina · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–1
- P1 11:54NSHShea WeberAssists: Francis Bouillon, Cal O'Reilly · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–1
- P1 15:04NSHSergei KostitsynAssists: Nick Spaling, Jerred Smithson · Wrist, 0.27 xG2–1
- P2 17:55NSHCody FransonAssists: David Legwand, Jordin Tootoo · Wrist, 0.13 xG3–1
- P3 14:10NSHColin WilsonGWGAssists: Martin Erat, J-P Dumont · Snap, 0.05 xG4–1
- P3 15:01TBLMartin St. LouisAssists: Steven Stamkos, Victor Hedman · Wrist, 0.11 xG4–2
- P3 15:58TBLAdam HallAssists: Nate Thompson, Mike Lundin · Wrap-around, 0.03 xG4–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 19:58TBLVictor Hedman: Roughing2 min
- P1 19:58NSHPatric Hornqvist: Slashing2 min
- P2 4:03NSHMartin Erat: Tripping2 min
- P2 8:27NSHJerred Smithson: Hooking2 min
- P2 9:31TBLTeddy Purcell: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 12:56NSHShane O'Brien: High sticking2 min
- P3 16:53NSHMartin Erat: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Thompson won the faceoff against O'Reilly
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- Smithson – Kostitsyn – Spaling8:31
xG 0.41–0.36 (53%)attempts 7–7goals 1–0
- Dumont – Erat – Wilson10:23
xG 0.30–0.38 (44%)attempts 6–9goals 1–0
- Legwand – Ward – Tootoo10:18
xG 0.30–0.55 (35%)attempts 9–14goals 1–2
- Sullivan – O'Reilly – Hornqvist11:04
xG 0.20–0.52 (28%)attempts 8–14goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestSulzer – Franson10:24
xG 0.50–0.39 (56%)attempts 9–14goals 2–0
- Klein – O'Brien16:45
xG 0.28–0.54 (34%)attempts 11–19goals 0–1
- Bouillon – Weber15:54
xG 0.40–0.89 (31%)attempts 11–18goals 2–2
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestLecavalier – Bergenheim – Purcell7:14
xG 0.53–0.25 (68%)attempts 7–5goals 1–0
- St. Louis – Lecavalier – Stamkos3:29
xG 0.36–0.09 (79%)attempts 6–4goals 1–0
- Malone – Moore – Stamkos2:26
xG 0.21–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- St. Louis – Downie – Stamkos8:43
xG 0.39–0.21 (65%)attempts 12–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestKubina – Lundin11:09
xG 0.85–0.14 (86%)attempts 18–5goals 1–0
- Kubina – Jones2:35
xG 0.23–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Clark – Hedman11:39
xG 0.33–0.15 (69%)attempts 14–10goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).