Tue, Oct 26, 2010·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Edmonton Oilers 4, Calgary Flames 5 (SO)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 76% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 18 | 16 | 217 | 01 | 0 | 432 |
| CGY | 212 | 213 | 010 | 04 | 1 | 539 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:52CGYBrendan MorrisonPPAssists: Mark Giordano, Rene Bourque · Slap, 0.02 xG0–1
- P1 8:38EDMKurtis FosterPPAssists: Magnus Paajarvi, Ryan Whitney · Slap, 0.06 xG1–1
- P1 19:40CGYJay BouwmeesterPPAssists: Alex Tanguay, Ian White · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–2
- P2 2:02CGYCurtis GlencrossAssists: Mikael Backlund · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–3
- P2 9:48CGYBrendan MorrisonSHUnassisted · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–4
- P2 19:43EDMJordan EberleAssists: Theo Peckham · Backhand, 0.04 xG2–4
- P3 6:52EDMMagnus PaajarviAssists: Andrew Cogliano, Ryan Whitney · Wrist, 0.12 xG3–4
- P3 9:19EDMTom GilbertAssists: Dustin Penner, Ales Hemsky · Wrist, 0.04 xG4–4
Shootout
- 1. EDM Ales Hemsky stopped
- 2. CGY Niklas Hagman stopped
- 3. EDM Jordan Eberle stopped
- 4. CGY Alex Tanguay scored
- 5. EDM Dustin Penner stopped
Penalties (17)
- P1 5:28EDMGilbert Brule: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 8:08CGYJarome Iginla: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 19:28EDMMagnus Paajarvi: Holding the stick2 min · PPG
- P1 19:45EDMSam Gagner: Fighting5 min
- P1 19:45CGYOlli Jokinen: Fighting5 min
- P2 3:34CGYRene Bourque: Holding2 min
- P2 9:40CGYSteve Staios: Interference2 min
- P2 12:12CGYMark Giordano: Fighting5 min
- P2 12:12EDMColin Fraser: Instigator2 min
- P2 12:12EDMColin Fraser: Fighting5 min
- P2 12:12EDMColin Fraser: Misconduct10 min
- P2 16:37EDMJason Strudwick: Fighting5 min
- P2 16:37CGYTim Jackman: Fighting5 min
- P2 17:16EDMTheo Peckham: High sticking2 min
- P3 10:16CGYCurtis Glencross: Roughing2 min
- P3 10:16EDMGilbert Brule: Roughing2 min
- P3 16:44EDMTheo Peckham: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Jokinen won the faceoff against Gagner
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestBrule – Cogliano – Paajarvi4:26
xG 0.29–0.10 (75%)attempts 7–2goals 1–0
- Horcoff – Eberle – Hall6:06
xG 0.20–0.12 (62%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Hemsky – Penner – Gagner10:41
xG 0.14–0.18 (44%)attempts 9–7goals 1–0
- Brule – Cogliano – Hall7:05
xG 0.05–0.25 (18%)attempts 5–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Gilbert – Peckham2:37
xG 0.08–0.09 (47%)attempts 2–3goals 1–0
- Smid – Peckham2:21
xG 0.06–0.08 (46%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Strudwick – Smid8:13
xG 0.03–0.05 (43%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestMorrison – Glencross – Backlund7:16
xG 0.29–0.14 (68%)attempts 5–5goals 1–0
- Conroy – Jackman – Meyer2:37
xG 0.06–0.03 (62%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Jokinen – Hagman – Bourque10:04
xG 0.13–0.11 (54%)attempts 6–9goals 0–1
- Iginla – Tanguay – Stajan13:15
xG 0.42–0.44 (49%)attempts 14–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSarich – Giordano10:13
xG 0.52–0.26 (66%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
- Staios – Bouwmeester13:13
xG 0.53–0.31 (63%)attempts 17–11goals 1–0
- Staios – Giordano2:08
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 76% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).