Sat, Oct 30, 2010·HP Pavilion at San Jose, San Jose
Anaheim Ducks 2, San Jose Sharks 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 04 | 07 | 213 | 224 |
| SJS | 216 | 322 | 03 | 541 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:36SJSDany HeatleyAssists: Joe Thornton, Dan Boyle · Backhand, 0.38 xG0–1
- P1 4:45SJSLogan CouturePPAssists: Joe Thornton, Dany Heatley · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–2
- P2 2:08SJSDany HeatleyPPGWGAssists: Joe Pavelski, Joe Thornton · Slap, 0.24 xG0–3
- P2 12:32SJSNiclas WallinAssists: Scott Nichol, Ryane Clowe · Deflected, 0.21 xG0–4
- P2 15:17SJSPatrick MarleauAssists: Dan Boyle · Snap, 0.05 xG0–5
- P3 4:20ANARyan GetzlafPPAssists: Corey Perry, Teemu Selanne · Slap, 0.16 xG1–5
- P3 11:18ANACorey PerryPPAssists: Teemu Selanne, Ryan Getzlaf · Slap, 0.16 xG2–5
Penalties (21)
- P1 2:23ANAGeorge Parros: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P1 2:23SJSFrazer McLaren: Fighting5 min
- P1 3:22ANADanny Syvret: Interference2 min
- P1 5:52ANAJason Blake: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 7:01ANASheldon Brookbank: Fighting5 min
- P1 7:01SJSRyane Clowe: Fighting5 min
- P1 14:10ANADanny Syvret: Hooking2 min
- P2 1:18ANACorey Perry: Interference goalkeeper2 min · PPG
- P2 2:10SJSJamal Mayers: Fighting5 min
- P2 2:10ANAAaron Voros: Fighting5 min
- P2 2:10SJSScott Nichol: Fighting5 min
- P2 2:10ANAKyle Chipchura: Fighting5 min
- P2 16:59ANAPaul Mara: Holding2 min
- P2 17:46ANARyan Carter: High sticking2 min
- P3 4:08SJSJason Demers: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 5:16SJSScott Nichol: Fighting5 min
- P3 5:16ANARyan Carter: Fighting5 min
- P3 10:11SJSDouglas Murray: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P3 10:11ANAAaron Voros: Fighting5 min
- P3 10:22SJSNiclas Wallin: Boarding2 min
- P3 17:13SJSLogan Couture: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Pavelski won the faceoff against Koivu
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestGetzlaf – Perry – Ryan7:03
xG 0.25–0.02 (93%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Marchant – Green – Carter3:21
xG 0.13–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
- Marchant – Parros – Chipchura2:16
xG 0.00–0.01 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
- Selanne – Ryan – Carter2:48
xG 0.06–0.09 (42%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLydman – Visnovsky13:27
xG 0.58–0.16 (78%)attempts 18–12goals 0–0
- Brookbank – Syvret8:44
xG 0.14–0.01 (92%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
- Lilja – Brookbank2:06
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–0goals 0–0
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestNichol – Clowe – Setoguchi2:04
xG 0.33–0.00 (99%)attempts 4–1goals 1–0
- Clowe – Pavelski – Mitchell5:23
xG 0.22–0.06 (78%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Thornton – Marleau – Heatley11:50
xG 0.65–0.49 (57%)attempts 14–12goals 2–0
- Clowe – Pavelski – Setoguchi3:49
xG 0.29–0.19 (61%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBoyle – Murray12:40
xG 0.66–0.36 (65%)attempts 12–10goals 2–0
- Wallin – Vlasic11:55
xG 0.42–0.24 (64%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
- Huskins – Demers13:22
xG 0.19–0.13 (58%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).