Wed, Nov 3, 2010·Verizon Center, Washington
Toronto Maple Leafs 4, Washington Capitals 5 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 16 | 010 | 39 | 03 | 0 | 428 |
| WSH | 09 | 312 | 17 | 02 | 2 | 530 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:29TORNikolay KuleminAssists: Mikhail Grabovski, Carl Gunnarsson · Snap, 0.07 xG1–0
- P2 6:05WSHMike GreenPPAssists: Alexander Semin, Alex Ovechkin · Snap, 0.13 xG1–1
- P2 10:35WSHJason ChimeraAssists: Boyd Gordon, Matt Bradley · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–2
- P2 11:28WSHTomas FleischmannAssists: John Carlson, Brooks Laich · Slap, 0.02 xG1–3
- P3 4:14TORMike BrownAssists: Tomas Kaberle, John Mitchell · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–3
- P3 5:02TORKris VersteegAssists: Mike Komisarek · Wrist, 0.15 xG3–3
- P3 7:17TORTyler BozakPPAssists: Tomas Kaberle, Kris Versteeg · Wrist, 0.50 xG4–3
- P3 14:22WSHAlexander SeminPPAssists: Brooks Laich, Alex Ovechkin · Snap, 0.26 xG4–4
Shootout
- 1. WSH Nicklas Backstrom stopped
- 2. TOR Phil Kessel stopped
- 3. WSH Alex Ovechkin scored
- 4. TOR Nikolay Kulemin stopped
- 5. WSH Alexander Semin scored
Penalties (10)
- P1 6:45WSHDJ King: Fighting5 min
- P1 6:45TORColton Orr: Fighting5 min
- P1 19:05WSHAlexander Semin: Slashing2 min
- P2 4:33TORLuke Schenn: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 12:29WSHAlexander Semin: Hooking2 min
- P2 15:57WSHDavid Steckel: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 19:51TORLuke Schenn: Boarding2 min
- P3 6:28WSHEric Fehr: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 13:44TORBrett Lebda: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- OT 1:55TORClarke MacArthur: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Grabovski won the faceoff against Fleischmann
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestMacArthur – Grabovski – Kulemin14:52
xG 1.13–0.43 (73%)attempts 14–8goals 1–0
- Versteeg – Kessel – Bozak6:20
xG 0.43–0.18 (70%)attempts 6–7goals 1–0
- Orr – Brent – Brown3:23
xG 0.17–0.02 (88%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Sjostrom – Mitchell – Bozak4:55
xG 0.03–0.03 (46%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKaberle – Schenn13:07
xG 1.13–0.43 (72%)attempts 14–13goals 0–0
- Beauchemin – Komisarek16:58
xG 0.63–0.29 (69%)attempts 12–13goals 1–0
- Lebda – Gunnarsson6:22
xG 0.27–0.10 (73%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestChimera – Gordon – Fehr9:05
xG 0.20–0.03 (88%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Bradley – Steckel – King3:14
xG 0.09–0.22 (30%)attempts 3–5goals 0–1
- Semin – Ovechkin – Backstrom11:19
xG 0.43–0.56 (43%)attempts 12–10goals 0–1
- Knuble – Laich – Fleischmann9:30
xG 0.42–0.57 (43%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSchultz – Green14:37
xG 0.66–0.53 (55%)attempts 19–13goals 1–2
- Alzner – Carlson15:37
xG 0.47–0.49 (49%)attempts 14–8goals 0–0
- Erskine – Fahey9:28
xG 0.20–0.24 (46%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).